Many pro-demonetisation economists and analysts had in the early days of the move claimed at least 20 per cent of the Rs 15.55 trillion of cancelled money would not come back to the system, which in turn, could enable the RBI to write off that amount from its balance sheet. The profit accretion could then be transferred to the Government by the RBI as surplus transfer.
According to a report by Motilal Oswal, only 3.5% of the money cancelled by demonetisation was not returned to the system.
Here are following important notes :
- According to domestic brokerage Motilal Oswal, the government may gain only Rs 72,800 crore from the move which includes taxes, penalties worth Rs 32,800 crore and Rs 40,000 crore by way of surplus transfer from the RBI.
- Additional taxes worth Rs 32,800 crore and non-tax revenue of Rs 40,000 crore will add Rs 72, 800 crore to the Government’s kitty next year.
- The central bank had publicly cited only Rs 15.55 trillion of high value notes were cancelled on November 8. It also said the actual quantum of bills cancelled was much higher at Rs 20.51 trillion.
- As per the brokerage’s estimates, the Income Tax Department may be able to unearth only Rs 28, 500 crore as black money.
- So far, neither the RBI nor the Government has quantified the money that came back to the system.