New Delhi: India's GDP growth is likely to have moderated to a 26-quarter low of 4.6% in Jul-Sep from 5.0% a quarter ago on the back of lower production in industry and agriculture, according to the median of estimates of a Cogencis poll of 27 economists.
The last time GDP growth was lower than this was in Jan-Mar of 2013 when it was at 4.3%. If GDP growth moderates in Jul-Sep, it would be the sixth successive quarter that growth would have slowed from the previous one.
GDP growth is seen declining in the second quarter of 2019-20 (Apr-Mar) despite a favourbale base effect. The GDP growth had fallen to 7.0% in Jul-Sep last year from 8.0% in the previous quarter.
The National Statistical Office will release GDP data for Jul-Sep at 1730 IST on November 29.
"All indicators are flashing red and the IIP (Index of Industrial Production) figure for September is a sign on the wall just as how much the Indian economy is struggling at the moment," said Hugo Erken, head of international economics at Rabobank.
Industrial growth fell to a record low of (-)4.3% in September, primarily on account of a sharp contraction in production capital and consumer durable goods. The industrial output contracted 0.4% in Jul-Sep, compared with a growth of 3.0% a quarter ago.
Erken's estimate of 4.0% GDP growth in Jul-Sep is the lowest among the poll's 27 respondents.
