India Q4 GDP growth seen at one-year low on weak consumption: Report

The upcoming release of official data for economic performance is likely to register a 2.7 percent growth for the January-March period

FPJ Web DeskUpdated: Tuesday, May 31, 2022, 09:14 AM IST
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Asia's third-largest economy probably grew 4.0 percent in the January-March quarter from a year earlier, a Reuters poll showed last week. / Representative image |

Soaring prices and the subsequent hit to consumer spending and investments are likely to further dampen India's economy, as the central bank faces a finely balanced struggle to tame inflation via rate hikes without hurting economic growth, economists...

Asia's third-largest economy probably grew 4.0 percent in the January-March quarter from a year earlier, a Reuters poll showed last week. That would be the slowest pace in a year, following 5.4 percent growth in the previous quarter. Forecasts for the data, due at due at 5.30 PM on Tuesday, ranged from 2.8 percent to 5.5 percent in the May 23-26 survey of 46 economists.

The upcoming release of official data for economic performance is likely to register a 2.7 percent growth for the January-March period, and the FY22 growth is expected to be 8.5 per cent, economists at SBI said on Thursday, PTI said.

They were, however, quick to add that it is difficult to comprehend the numbers due to the spate of revisions that we have seen till now and termed this situation as a forecaster's nightmare.

“We ...believe the GDP projection for Q4 FY22 is clouded by significant uncertainties. For example, even a one per cent downward revision in Q1 GDP estimates of FY22 from 20.3 per cent, all other things remaining unchanged, could push Q4 GDP growth to 3.8 per cent,” they noted.

Official data on the economy is expected to be released on May 31.

The Central Statistics Office (CSO) had projected Q4 GDP at Rs 41.04 lakh crore and FY22 real GDP growth at Rs 147.7 lakh crore, an improvement of 1.7 per cent over pre-pandemic levels, they said, adding that the 'SBI Nowcasting model' with an unchanged quarterly numbers pegs the growth rate of Q4GDP at Rs 40 lakh crores, that is lower by Rs 1 lakh crore from the CSO preliminary projections.

(With inputs from Reuters, Agencies)

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