OPEC's Monthly Oil Market Report for June projected that the global economy will grow by 5.5 percent and oil demand will rise by 6 million barrels per day in 2021.
As per EIA weekly report ending June 18, 2021, US crude oil refinery inputs averaged at 16.1 million barrels per day, which has been 224,000 barrels more compared to previous average. Currently, refineries has operated at 92.2 percent of their operable capacity during last week, higher compared to the last week's capacity of 92.6 percent. Gasoline production decreased during the last week, averaging 10.3 million barrels per day. Correspondingly, the distillate fuel production has inclined during the last week, averaging at 5.1 million bpd, according to a report by Choice Broking.
US crude oil imports are up by 197,000 barrels to 6.9 million barrels per day during last week. Over the past few weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.5 million barrels per day, less by 6.5 percent in compared to a four-week period to the last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 840,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 276,000 barrels per day.
US commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve reported at 459.1 million barrels, decreased by 7.6 million barrels compared to the previous week's inventories of 466.7 million barrels.
At 459.1 million barrels, US crude oil inventories are 6 percent above five-year average for this time of the year. The total motor gasoline inventories during last week has decreased by 2.9 million, to a total of 240.1 million barrels and are about 1 percent below the five-year range. Finished gasoline inventories increased and blending components decreased during the last week. Correspondingly, distillate fuel inventories has increased by 1.8 million barrels during the last week to 137.9 million barrels and are 4 percent above than the five-year average for this time of the year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 1.0 million barrels last week to a total of 56.2 million barrels and are 15 percent above the five-year average during this time of the year.
Outlook
For the week ahead, we are expecting global prices to witness a bullish trend as the demand in western countries continue to rise with fall in US inventories and American stockpiles, said Choice Broking. Moreover, markets have been optimistic with report of higher inflation data in the US. Additionally, market is currently tightening ahead of an OPEC+ meeting that will consider pumping more crude. Russia is considering making a proposal that OPEC+ boost output and delegates say a hike is being informally discussed. Conversely, there has been no major changes in US-Iran trade talks regarding the nuclear deal and sanction.
