The State Bank of India's (SBI) research report Ecowrap, in its latest edition, projected India's GDP growth for FY22 to be at 8.2-8.5 percent.
For Q4FY22, the report projected growth at 2.7 percent.
"We however believe the GDP projection for Q4FY22 is clouded by significant uncertainties. For example, even a 1 percent downward revision in Q1 GDP estimates of FY22 from 20.3 percent, all other things remaining unchanged could push Q4 GDP growth to 3.8 percent," the report said.
Early trend of Q4FY22 results for corporates, in the listed space, reported better growth across parameters as compared to Q4FY21 albeit contraction in operating margin due to higher input costs. Sectors such as steel, FMCG, chemicals, IT-software, auto ancillary, and paper reported better growth numbers.
However, automobile, cement, capital goods-electrical equipment, and edible oil reported growth in the top line in Q4FY22, registered negative growth in PAT.
"Meanwhile globally, while the average real GDP Y-o-Y growth in Q1 2022 for 25 economies at 5.5 percent is a tad higher than the preceding quarter, GDP growth is marking an abrupt reversal in major economies (the US, France, Italy, Sweden). The US economy unexpectedly contracted in the Q1 2022 (on sequential basis) amid a resurgence in Covid-19 cases and drop in pandemic relief money from the government. This is the first decline in GDP since the short and sharp pandemic recession nearly two years ago," said the report.
Investors are already wary of rising inflationary pressures, however, certain economic data including new jobless claims rising to a four-month high and negative leading index have further sparked concerns that pricing pressures are starting to now take a toll on the economic growth.
On crude oil prices, the report said it was sceptical that prices may not sustain at high levels for a long time.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to hike rates in the June policy meeting and the cumulative rate hike in June and August is likely to be 75 basis points, it said.
The report added that the best thing that has emerged during the pandemic is the coordinated policy response by both the government and the RBI in staving off the health crisis and now the inflation.
"The RBI has largely been successful in communicating to the market about its intentions and seems to have managed the art of managing expectations much better."