For the week ahead, global prices are likely to witness a bullish trend as the demand in the western countries continue to increase. However, with sluggish tone from India which happens to be the largest importer is expected to cap extreme bullishness, as various states have imposed lockdown amid the second wave of COVID-19 and worries of the third wave, said a report from Choice Broking. Conversely, industrial activities in the United States, economic recovery in the European Union and reopening of western countries is expected to cushion crude prices. Overall, ''we expect global crude prices to bullish with possibility of small correction amid vaccine optimism in India and the globe," Choice Broking said in its report.
Global crude prices to trade higher
US crude oil refinery inputs averaged at 15.0 million barrels per day, which has been 223,000 barrels less compared to previous outrage. As per EIA weekly report ending May 7, 2021, currently refineries have operated at 86.1 percent of their operable capacity during last week, higher compared to the last week's capacity of 86.5 percent. Gasoline production decreased during the last week, averaging 9.6 million barrels per day. Correspondingly, the distillate fuel production has inclined during the last week, averaging a 4.7 million bpd.
US crude oil imports are up 37,000 barrels to 5.5 million barrels per day during last week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 5.7 million barrels per day, more by 7.6 percent compared to the four-week period of the last year. The total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 936,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 208,000 barrels per day.
US commercial crude oil inventories excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve reported at 484.7 million barrels, decreased by 0.4 million barrels compared to the previous week's inventories of 485.1 million barrels. At 484.7 million barrels, US crude oil inventories are at the five-year average for this time of the year. The total motor gasoline inventories during last week has increased by 0.4 million to a total of 236.2 million barrels and are about 3 percent above the five-year range.
Finished gasoline inventories increased while blending components decreased during the last week. Correspondingly, distillate fuel inventories has decreased by 2.2 million barrels during last week to 134.4 million barrels and are 7 percent above than the five-year average for this time of the year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 2.5 million barrels last week to a total of 44.0 million barrels and are 16 percent below the five-year average during this time of the year.