Domestic equity investors are likely to keep a close watch on global cues, especially the fallout of the US-based Silicon Valley Bank failure, inflation trends and foreign fund flows in the coming week after days of volatile trading sessions.
CPI and WPI
After the holiday-shortened trading sessions this week that saw the benchmark Sensex declining more than 1 per cent, analysts opined that investors will be waiting for the consumer price inflation data for February to be released on Monday.
The WPI inflation data will be released a day late on Tuesday.
Both the data points are important as the Reserve Bank of India will be considering these points for the next policy meeting which is to be held in the first week of April.
Most experts are expecting the number to be above 6 per cent but lower than 6.5 per cent and the core inflation is expected to be around 6 per cent. This could result in another rate hike from the RBI in the next month.
Balance of Trade Numbers
The Balance of Trade numbers for the last month is expected to be announced on March 15, whereas the foreign exchange reserves for the week ended on March 10 will be out on March 17.
Investors are expected to keep an eye on the US inflation numbers that are scheduled for Tuesday. This will play a key role in the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates in the next policy meeting that is to be held on March 22.
"The global market has fallen back into the grip of uncertainty following the US Federal Reserve chief's comment that signaled the possibility of a prolonged and faster rate hike, contradicting a dovish comment made by another Fed official last week," Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services, said.
Silicon Valley Bank
The failure of the Silicon Valley Bank, a key funding source for startups in the technology space, has sparked concerns regarding the overall health of the global financial system amid central banks raising interest rates to tackle inflation.
ECB Interest Rate Decision
In the coming week we have have the interest rate decision by the European Central Bank on March 16. The February inflation of the European Union is expected to be released on March 17.
Adani Group Stocks
Adani Group has been in focus since January 24, when US short seller Hindenburg released its report. This week according to a report by Financial Times Gautam Adani is expected to sell stakes worth $450 million in Ambuja Cements.
Further, NSE and BSE said that Adani Transmission and Adani Total Gas will be moved to put under the second stage of long term additional surveillance measures framework from Monday.
Adani Enterprises, Adani Wilmar and Adani Power are already under the short-term additional surveillance measure framework Stage I, while NDTV and Adani Green Energy are under the long term ASM framework Stage II.
On Friday, the 30-share BSE Sensex tanked 671.15 points or 1.12 per cent to settle at 59,135.13 points amid weak global cues and foreign institutional investors offloading shares. During the week ended March 10, the benchmark dropped 1.12 per cent or 673.84 points.
According to Meena, Chinese IIP (industrial index production) numbers and institutional fund flows will be crucial as Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) are still in the selling mode if certain block deals are excluded.
On the other hand, Nair also noted that higher-than-expected jobless claims in the US that came on Friday helped alleviate some concerns about the Federal Reserve becoming more strict on interest rate hikes.
With inputs from agencies
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