India is likely to lose Rs 10.3 trillion ($143 billion) from the first half of 2020, which makes up 74 per cent of the real GDP due to the 21-day lockdown called by the central government to battle the novel coronavirus, COVID-19, an HDFC Bank report has revealed.
The report, however, says that there is growth expected in the April-June quarter of 2020, which is weak, but in the positive quadrant.
Another report by CARE Ratings has taken the losses by each sector in the industry, with aviation, tourism and hospitality, and the automobile sector the worst affected. Reality could fall in this category, but the real estate bubble burst much before the COVID-19 pandemic broke out.
Former Finance Minister P Chidambaram also tweeted about it today. "After the three quarters’ growth rates of 5.6, 5.1 and 4.7 per cent, the fourth quarter of 2019-20 ended yesterday. Q4 growth could not have been more than 4 per cent. So annual GDP for 2019-20 must be a disappointing 4.8 per cent.
Earlier, ratings agency India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra), has revised GDP estimates for India from 5.5 per cent to 3.6 per cent for FY21, due to Coronavirus and the resultant lockdown. Looking at the current scenario, the agency also revised the FY20 GDP forecast downward to 4.7 per cent from The National Statistical Office’s advance estimate of 5 per cent.
