Bhopal: As voters head for the booths on November 28, both the BJP and the Congress can have the satisfaction of having fought the battle with all their might. In the overall assessment, however, BJP appeared to be far ahead of the Congress, both in terms of resources and getting their star leaders to hit the campaign trail.
By undertaking whirlwind tours, Shivraj Singh Chouhan proved that he has plenty of energy. Perhaps the BJP realised that it is better to seek votes in the name of Chouhan instead of the party and also in the name of Prime Minister Modi. The slogan ‘ghar ghar Modi’ is totally forgotten. Instead the party has coined the slogan ‘maaf karo maharaj hamara neta Shivraj’.
In the war of advertisements the BJP has been far ahead. Almost every day BJP released more than three ads even to newspapers which are not sold and are distributed free. The party purchased front pages of almost all newspapers listing the achievements of the 13 year rule of Chouhan.
Despite the massive propaganda there are certain factors which may play spoilsport for the BJP. The most important factor is the anger of farmers over the delayed payments on the sale of their produce in mandis. They get just ten percent of the cost in cash and the rest in instalments. The shortage of urea is also a factor. There is simmering anger over the high cost of inputs, particularly diesel, petrol and LPG cylinders.
“Everything has become so expensive that it is difficult for us to maintain our daily life. Our income is dipping every day. It is terrible, we need a change”, say farmers. The resultant anger is making many of them, including BJP supporters, openly talk about the need for a change. The Chouhan government is seeking a fourth term and, therefore, caught in a fatigue syndrome: something that is chipping away the CM’s goodwill factor.
Not only farmers, even small traders, who have been traditional supporters of the BJP, are angry. “Demonetization has ruined us” they say. Again, the youth, who constitute the biggest chunk of Modi admirers, are jobless. They feel they have been cheated by Modi and also the state government. The government servants too want a change. They are not too happy at the overweening influence of the Sangh Parivar. While these factors will play a crucial role in deciding the fate of the BJP, there are also certain factors which may help it.
The foremost among these is the personal popularity of Chouhan, his concern for poor, for arranging mass marriages and partly financing them with government funds, the scheme for pilgrimage of elderly poor persons and freebees including the supply of wheat at one rupee per kilogram, concession in electricity bills and some more facilities for girl child, including Rs two lakh insurance for them.
As for the Congress, its biggest asset is Kamal Nath’s leadership. During the 2008 and 2013 Assembly elections the Congress had a very weak leadership. His seniority, both in age and experience, has helped a long way in controlling factional feuds in the party. One of the main strategies adopted by Nath was to keep Digvijaya Singh in a low profile and use him to work for party coordination. Congress feels that it has succeeded in projecting anti-incumbency to a great extent.
But there are other factors which are likely to influence the verdict, particularly the role of small parties. How much inroads they will make in the vote banks of the Congress and the BJP is difficult to assess. Among the most important factors is the SC-ST Prevention of Atrocities Act. This Act has paved the way for the formation of an exclusive party of upper castes, which is being led among others by a dozen of former IAS and IPS officers, all belonging to the upper castes.
Similarly it is difficult to assess how much impact parties like BSP, SP and AAP will make on the traditional vote banks of the BJP and the Congress. Nonetheless, the Congress is hoping for a rebound by tapping the anti-incumbency factor. The BJP calculates that the swing against it will not be big enough to cover the gap of 2013 elections.
