One clear infirmity in Indian politics that crept into our system following the collapse of the monolithic Congress Party in the late 60s is the recurrent State and Central elections. Even while making due allowance for the diversity and size of the country, the fact that we seem to be perennially in the election mode does act as a constraint on the ruling parties at the Centre and in various States.
To obviate the problem of frequent elections, sometime ago a well-meaning suggestion was to amend the Constitution in order to synchronise State and Central polls throughout the country. Aside from the insurmountable problem of getting all political parties on board, aligning democratic aspirations with mandatory five-year elections posed such a serious challenge that the idea never found any traction.
In short, there seems to be no escape from elections every few months. On Friday, the Election Commission unveiled the new poll calendar for four States and one Union Territory. Election in Assam is scheduled for April 4 and 11. West Bengal will have six-phase polling, beginning with the first on April 4 and the last on May 5. Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry will have a single phase poll on May 16.
The counting for all States is scheduled on May 19. Over 17 crore voters in 824 constituencies are entitled to vote in what can also be called a mini general election, given that 17 crore is more than the population of a large number of countries. The BJP has raised objections about the Assam schedule, arguing that it being a security-sensitive State polling should be spread over more phases, especially in view of the mischief potential of the incumbent three-term chief minister.
Besides, keeping the polled votes secure from April 4 till May 19, when these are to be counted, cannot inspire confidence. Given the fact that Tarun Gogoi of the Congress Party has been in power since 2001, his grip on the bureaucracy and the police might tempt him to use unfair means to retain power, the BJP fears. The party soon intends to petition the Chief Election Commissioner Nasim Zaidi in this regard.
However, if the stakes are high for the Congress in Assam, these are much higher for the BJP which can reasonably expect to win power only in Assam of the four States and UT going to the polls in this round of elections. After the loss in Bihar, clearly the BJP has decided not to hype things up, though it has taken key decisions to consolidate its position in Assam through meaningful tie-ups and through imports from the other parties.
The tie-up with the once powerful Asom Gana Parishad last week and, earlier, with the Bodoland People’s Front is meant to ensure consolidation of non-Congress votes. Aside from naming Sarbananda Sonowal as its chief ministerial candidate, the party has inducted a number of former ministers and legislators from the Congress Party, including Himanta Biswal who was number two in the Gogoi Government.
Winning Assam is considered crucial for the BJP to stem the criticism that after the Lok Sabha poll Modi has lost his pulling power due partly to the performance of the government and partly due to the gang-up of other parties against the BJP.
Elsewhere, stakes are high for the outgoing Tamil Nadu chief minister J. Jayalalithaa who played her last card on the eve of the polls, seeking early release from jail for the killers of Rajiv Gandhi. This is an emotional issue with the Tamil, though the ultimate decision lies with the apex court. However, an anti-AIADMK alliance is being forged by the rival DMK, which after the pummeling in the last parliamentary poll is still to recover fully from the corruption scandals involving its senior leaders.
In West Bengal, despite the near-certain alliance or a seat-sharing arrangement between the Left Front and the Congress, Mamata Banerjee seems to be in a better position to retain power.
However, the Congress-Left tango in West Bengal might make things harder for the return of Left Front to power in Kerala, though this might aid the BJP in its bid to establish itself as a third force, equidistant from the rival fronts. All in all, the Central Government can expect to regain political initiative should the BJP win in Assam and acquit itself respectably in Kerala. In other States the party remains a marginal player, though any gains there will act as a bonus.
