Priyanka Gandhi’s high-profile appearance in Lucknow on the cusp of 2020 is a hopeful sign for the Congress, which is in dire need of dynamic leadership and ideological clarity. A strong presence in Uttar Pradesh is a holy grail for the Congress, a necessary precursor to a comeback at the national level.
As the party's most charismatic face, she has been tasked with Mission UP 2022, the revival of the Congress in India’s largest state. But the paths to power in UP are tortuous, calling for a solid grassroots organisation, credible leadership and a committed core votebank on which it can build a successful social coalition.
In the early 1990s, the Congress had an impressive grassroots organisation, which dwindled into nothingness under the expanding footprint of the mandal-and-masjid parties. Today, these parties are in decline and there are signs that Priyanka is capable of attracting young workers from all sections of society.
She can no longer afford to be a parachute leader. Organisations cannot be built, or rebuilt, by remote control. 'Spending more time' in the state capital or holding 'three-four meetings a week' with party workers doesn't cut it; she would be well-advised to take a leaf out of Mayawati's book by touring the state relentlessly. She has found an elegant bungalow in Lucknow; whether it will serve as a home remains to be seen.
The second order of business is building a local leadership. The old satraps are long gone and the dynasts who sought to assume their mantle have all fallen lamentably short of the mark. Some of the deadwood was ejected last year, for opposing team Priyanka, but the new faces have yet to prove themselves. Under Rahul Gandhi, talent-spotting became fashionable, but did not yield leadership material. Priyanka's capacity as a judge of character will be put to the test.
Putting together a social coalition is a challenge, in a time of caste consolidation in the BJP's favour. If the assembly bypoll results two months ago are any indication, UP chief minister Yogi Adityanath's popularity hasn't suffered.
The old Congress electoral formula of minority-plus-dalits/backwards/brahmins worked very well until it lost the minority vote to the mandal parties. Today, it cannot lay claim to any specific votebank. One major reason is that, post-Babri Masjid, the Congress has struggled to define itself ideologically.
In the five-and-a-half years that the BJP has been in power, its stance has been even fuzzier. In Sabarmati, Rahul tied himself in knots by personally supporting but politically opposing the entry of women into the temple! Priyanka likewise cannot, by the simple expedient of confining herself to events in UP, side-step the question of how the Congress can run with the saffron hares in Maharashtra while hunting with the secular hounds elsewhere.
That said, she is unselfconscious about her secular principles and has no trouble deploying Hindu symbols or citing scripture, while standing up for minorities. For example, at her press meet in Lucknow to deplore the use of force against anti-CAA protestors, she adjured the CM to follow 'Hindu' dharma, in keeping with his saffron robes.
Winning back the confidence of the minorities is eminently possible, but she must pick her fights carefully, so as not to alienate the majority. Reverse polarisation is the last thing the Congress needs. The BJP's social engineering has built up a formidable coalition of OBCs, EBCs, upper castes and a section of the dalits, which makes it very difficult for the Congress to make any headway among these sections.
A standard short-term method of coalition-building is political alliances with caste-based regional forces. For example, the Congress allied with the JMM in Jharkhand and rode on its coattails to an improved seatshare. But an alliance always entails the risk of losing its votebase altogether, as the Congress has discovered to its cost in UP.
In any case, the SP and BSP did not see the Congress as a desirable ally in the general elections, because it brought nothing to the table. Rahul Gandhi had to face the embarrassment of being summarily dumped by the mahagathbandhan in UP. That the alliance crashed and burned in the 2019 Lok Sabha was small consolation, because the Congress also failed in its self-appointed role of 'votecutter'.
Priyanka could look for other allies, smaller parties with a local presence, that is, take a bottoms-up approach in tandem with strengthening her own outreach. The BJP-Apna Dal alliance, for instance, has proved valuable for both partners.
For the first time, the Congress is showing signs of life in UP. Priyanka has been handed the toughest job in the Congress and so far, she hasn't put a foot wrong. A big leap forward would be too much to expect from any leader; the best that can be hoped for is that, if the political winds shift drastically in 2022, the Congress may be in a position to take advantage of them.
The writer is a senior journalist with 35 years of experience in working with major newspapers and magazines. She is now an independent writer and author.
