The last days of high-pitch campaigns are happening in Uttarakhand as it will go to the polls on February 14. Recently, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi held a virtual rally in the state and Prime Minister Narendra Modi is all set to begin his campaign from this week.
In the midst of this all is the serious antiincumbency against the BJP. Further, the issue of infighting has created havoc among both the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress. Eventually, the citizens of Uttarakhand have only one expectation from this election. They want a stable government with a permanent chief minister.
History of political instability
The state of Uttarakhand was carved out of Uttar Pradesh in 2000.Its 21-year-old history has been filled with political instability -- four assembly elections have been held but 10 chief ministers have come and gone. On Independence Day, 1996,Prime Minister H D Deve Gowda announced the formation of the new state of Uttaranchal, which was later named Uttarakhand. Under the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government, Parliament and the President of India approved the Uttaranchal Bill and in November 2000, it became a separate state. It would be wrong to say that political instability has occurred only in the time of the Bharatiya Janata Party. In 2014, Harish Rawat took oath as the chief minister of Uttarakhand but within two years, after nine Congress MLAs rebelled against him, the state went under President’s rule. Later, Rawat returned to power but in the 2017 assembly elections, this infighting caused havoc to the Congress party and it won just 11 seats. However, even after this, the instability continued under the new BJP government.
How anti-incumbency might affect BJP
In 2017, the BJP won around 57 seats but this time, it will be a tough task. Firstly, the Modi wave which was in evidence the last time is not as intense. Secondly, in the Kumaon belt, the farmers are agitated against the BJP government over the controversial farm laws (subsequently repealed).
The Kumaon belt is considered very important in terms of the political outcome of the state. Significantly, current Chief Minister Pushkar Singh Dhami’s constituency Khatima is also part of this belt, where farmers are still seething.
Meanwhile, despite the so-called double engine government, the recent environmental disasters have raised questions on the intent of the BJP government. However, unfortunately, none of the political parties in the state has made environmental restoration a poll issue in the upcoming election.
Increasing Congress infighting and a possible masterstroke
The infighting in the Uttarakhand Congress is now a regular story. However, the party has done some last-minute course correction and has given tickets to the former rebels. Again, the trend that the state of Uttarakhand has never consecutively voted for the same party is favouring the Congress. According to party sources, the population of Muslims and Sikhs from the lower Terai region could play the biggest role in this election.
Meanwhile, a section of people believes that the masterstroke of the Congress lies in having moved former CM Harish Rawat from the Ramnagar seat to Lalkuan. This has brought down the chance of rebellion by the working president of the party’s state unit, Ranjeet Rawat, who has been eyeing the Ramnagar seat for several years. This decision is important because it has toned down the rebellion within the party significantly.
Employment, healthcare & disaster management, the need of the hour
During the Covid pandemic, the poor health of the health infrastructure in Uttarakhand was exposed. On the one hand, the citizens of Uttarakhand are looking for political stability and on the other, they are also looking for steps by which employment can be generated and a better health infrastructure can be developed.
Currently, the citizens of the state want a clean and clear focus on disaster management. In the past several years, the state has witnessed several natural calamities and many people have lost their lives. While the BJP government claims that it has done magnificent work in terms of developing a better disaster management system, in reality, these claims are highly exaggerated.
In the minds of the people of Uttarakhand, it is clear that if immediate work on the development of a disaster management system and environment restoration does not start, then the future of the state will be in jeopardy.
Rise of Aam Aadmi Party In Uttarakhand
Col Ajay Kothiyal (Retd) is the Aam Aadmi Party’s chief ministerial candidate. In Uttarakhand, the AAP’s messaging is not only the Delhi Model but also nationalism and of making Uttarakhand the spiritual capital of India, which is a pro-Hindu stand.
Army veterans and their families hold a major vote share in the state and Kothiyal is a popular figure known for his social works in the state. With increasing infighting in the BJP, consecutive change in CMs and the deteriorating significance of the Congress in Uttarakhand, the AAP is undoubtedly in a good position.
Meanwhile, pitching the Delhi model, with 200 units of free electricity, water bill waiver, improvement of education and healthcare facilities, the AAP is all set to woo the voters in this state. The rise of the AAP should be a matter of concern for Congress in this election because the key voter base of the party has always been the traditional Congress voter.
More than the BJP, the AAP targets Congress during poll campaigns. However, it is unlikely for the AAP to form a government this time in Uttarakhand but if the Congress fails, then eventually their vote will entirely shift to the AAP.
Who will win Uttarakhand, time will tell. But irrespective of the outcome, the people of the state expect a government that will be in place for five years and an administrator in whom they can repose faith for the coming years. If in the turmoil of infighting, this basic expectation of the people is brushed off, it would be the biggest mistake that could be committed by the party that will come to power.
(The writer is an independent journalist based in Kolkata and former policy research fellow, Delhi Assembly Research Centre. He tweets @sayantan_gh. Views expressed are personal)
