The BJP has been jolted by the UP and Bihar voter. The party’s defeat in Gorakhpur and Phulpur Lok Sabha constituencies and its failure to wrest the Araria Lok Sabha seat from the RJD constitutes a timely warning that the voter is looking for delivery on promises made during the Lok Sabha and Assembly polls. The outcome of the by-polls may not mean anything to the stability of the Central and State governments, but in perceptional terms, it is a blow to the party.
The recent extraordinarily good showing by the BJP in the north-eastern States does not compensate for the setback in the Hindi heartland. Since under the Modi-Shah duo, the BJP has come to invest a lot of energy in all elections, it is important that it draws the right lessons from its loss in UP. The loss of Gorakhpur, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s constituency, which has remained with the BJP since 1991, is a personal setback to him. A mere twenty percent turnout in Gorakhpur town suggests that the traditional BJP supporter is angry. Such low turnout is a pointer to the lack of organisational energy, nay, complacency the party displayed in the by-polls. Both Gorakhpur and Phulpur were won by the BJP in the 2014 general election by huge margins, the party getting more than fifty per cent of the total votes polled.
The low turnout suggests that the SP-BSP combine got their vote out, fighting as they were for survival after the twin blows of 2014 and 2017. On the other hand, the BJP took things for granted, believing that a winning margin of over three-lakh votes in each constituency could not be eroded so easily. The SP won the two seats only because Mayawati’s loyal vote-bank transferred its vote to Akhilesh Yadav’s candidates. Mayawati had drawn a blank in the Lok Sabha poll and barely won a couple of seats in the Assembly polls last year. It was a question of survival for her. She may have established her relevance by ensuring the victory of the SP candidates. Whether this will lead to a long-term SP-BSP tie-up remains unclear. The mutual antipathies of their traditional bases being so strong, the alliance will remain vulnerable to contrary pulls and pressures. In the by-elections, both were fighting with their backs to the wall, and had to prove a point about their continuing presence in the State.
Besides, local issues dominate by-elections, though the BJP was guilty of fielding lack-luster candidates and then not fully backing them with its wonted organisational might. Yogi Adityanath, in particular, should desist from harping on divisive issues and instead concentrate on improving the quality of governance. Being tough on lawless elements and enforcing strict vigilance during school examinations is not enough. He should improve the quality of infrastructure, healthcare, education and generally tone up the administration to reduce graft in the delivery of welfare benefits. As for Bihar, the results of the by-elections have established the leadership of Tejashwi Yadav even as his father cools his heels in prison for corruption. With Akhilesh Yadav now fully in command of the SP and Tejashwi Yadav of the RJD, the succession in the social justice parties has got the popular stamp. However, the formal succession in the Congress Party may not have been as auspicious, with the Congress candidates in the two UP Lok Sabha constituencies forfeiting their deposits. Rahul Gandhi’s claim to head a potential anti-BJP grouping have received a setback following the outcome in the by-polls. Without revival in the Hindi heartland, the Congress remains in danger of being reduced to a minor player in the national polity.
Of course, it will be wrong to read too much in the by-election results. No way do these foretell the shape of things to come in 2019. Under Prime Minister Modi, the BJP still remains the foremost party to retain the mandate in the next general election. It is because Modi is by far the most popular national leader. And, two, there is no one in the Opposition around whom the entire gaggle of parties, some mutually hostile, can coalesce into a viable alliance. Also, underestimating the ability of the Modi-Shah duo to exploit the mutual antipathies and rival ambitions of the Opposition leaders will be a mistake. Besides, if the past is any guide, the by-election outcomes rarely reflect the results of the general elections that follow. All in all, a boost for the regional parties in Bihar and UP, and a huge blow to the Rahul-led Congress, while a reminder to the ruling BJP to tone up governance.
