Given the meltdown in the Samajwadi party, patriarch Mulayam Singh Yadav has been compelled to change tack and strive for a “grand alliance” in Uttar Pradesh, a la Bihar style to keep the BJP at bay — at least for all outward appearances.
Netaji, as Mulayam Singh is known, appears to have thrown in the towel in his home state. A mahagatbandhan is unlikely to work in UP because the SP and BSP are staunch rivals. However, it has been generally seen in the past that the result in UP has largely gone the Bihar way. The mahagatbandhan in Bihar sealed the fate of the saffron brigade in one of the main battleground states in the Hindi heartland.
Till the internal feud in the SP blew up in the face of Mulayam Singh, youthful chief minister AkhileshYadav and his father were convinced of things going smoothly for the dynastic political family. The bitterness in the party has nullified Akhilesh’s chances of retaining power in UP for a second successive term.Mulayam Singh quickly deputed his brother ShivpalYadav to visit Delhi and Patna to specially invite SharadYadav and Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar, Lalu Prasad Yadav (RJD) as well as RLD’s Ajit Singh and former Prime Minister and JD (S) chief H D DeveGowda for the silver jubilee celebrations of the party on November fifth in Lucknow. Congress has welcomed a truly secular combine without making its reservations public. The fight at the hustings in UP is now ranged between Mayawati’s BSP and the BJP. The BSP supremo has emphasised that the Muslims have foreclosed the saffron brigade regaining power in the state.
BJP has reasons to be worried even though it believes the feud in the SP is “a high voltage drama to secure the future of chief minister ministerAkhileshYadav”. It is a “fixed match” to divert attention from the failures of the AkhileshYadav government, BJP national secretary Shrikant Sharma contended. A win in UP will set the stage for the BJP in its bid to rule the country for a decade or two five-year terms. That is subject to secular parties coming together to unitedly fight the BJP failing which Prime Minister NarendraModi might still carry the day as evidenced in the general elections in 2014. For the first time the BJP enjoyed a clear majority on its own in the 543-member LokSabha. There is speculation about SP seeking to reach a subterranean understanding with the BJP to make things easy for the latter in UP. The gambit is in working out an understanding whereby Mulayam Singh is accommodated in the highest constitutional post next year and the SP seemingly making things easy by transferring its votes to the BJP.
The suggestion is nothing short of being preposterous as the BJP will like to have one of of its stalwarts in RashtrapatiBhawan for the first time. President Pranab Mukherjee is completing his term in July next year.
There is intense speculation about RajyaSabha MP and Mulayam Singh’s friend Amar Singh, who is known as ‘Shakuni’ in SP circles, taking up Netaji’s cause. Meanwhile, Shivpal as the president of the UP unit of the SP continues to target and expel those close to Akhilesh for anti-party activities. Mulayam Singh has tried to balance the power enjoyed by Akhileshvis-a-vis his brother Shivpal.
The elder statesman in the ruling party in Lucknow wants to get beyond the power struggle between the nephew and uncle. Be that as it may, Akhilesh has begun a solo state-wide yatra. The unmistakable signal is of repositioning AkhileshYadav as the best choice to lead UP again. A reconciliation in the large Yadav family amid Netaji’s efforts to keep the SP united is nothing short of a mirage. The split might not happen till Netaji is around.
SP losing its plot in UP has worked to Mayawati’s advantage in making a determined bid for power. Her elevation as chief minister for a record fifth time in the country’s most populous state cannot be ruled out. The BSP has seized the opportunity emphasising that the Dalit-Muslim combine voting for Mayawati will take her comfortably beyond the simple majority of 202 in the 403-member UP assembly.
SP’s Muslim supporters do not want to back an “unreliable” political party. UP minister Azam Khan’s reference to the SP is unmistakable. Muslims are unlikely to back the BJP because of its three-point Hindutva agenda. The only other option for them is to back the BSP which they have done in the past. In a last ditch effort, Prime Minister NarendraModi has criticised the practice of “triple talaq” and underlined the need for ending it. He has also given a call for wooing the backward classes among the Yadavs, Dalits and other castes along with their Brahmin supporters to back the BJP.
The week gone by witnessed a warring chief minister AkhileshYadav and uncleShivpalYadav indulge in a blame game and emotional letting before a gathering of party faithfuls. Netaji affirmed the chief minister is not going to be changed. That might have been reassuring for Akhilesh who was chided for not taking criticism in his stride. Netaji is aware of the pitfalls in a polarised environment.
It is widely believed that UP has been run by four-and-a-half chief ministers all along thereby turning it into a ‘police raj’ under the SP. Dynastic rule beginning with the Nehru-Gandhis at the Centre has steadily spread to the states. In the states dynastic rule has invariably turned out to be a government of and for the political family at the helm of affairs.
