The results of the by-elections across the country last week have left one State government on the edge, worried about its survival, while these have firmed up further the grip of two others. The post-Jayalalithaa AIADMK Government is set to face further tremors after its candidate was spurned by the voters in the R K Nagar constituency, which was held by the late party boss for nearly three decades. The shock was all the greater because the winner was not the opposition DMK but T T V Dinakaran, the controversial nephew of Sasikala, the long-term companion of Jayalaithaa.
Convicted under the anti-corruption law, Sasikala is now lodged in a Bengaluru prison. She and her nephew, who pulled off a huge win as an independent from Jayalalithaa’s constituency, have laid claim to the legacy of the Puratchi Thalaivi (Revolutionary Leader), as the charismatic leader of the AIADMK was called by supporters. Chief Minister E Palaniswami and his foe-turned-ally O Panneerselvam were thus far able to withstand the challenge of Sasikala-Dinkaran to take control of the AIDMK and its government thanks to the generous help of the BJP government at the Centre.
In the normal course, the BJP ought not to have any objection doing business with the nephew-aunt duo, but the taint of corruption attached to them obliged it to maintain distance. The fact that the AIADMK has 37 Lok Sabha members and 12 Rajya Sabha members makes it attractive for the NDA to keep it in the loop. How things will pan out in Chennai in the next couple of weeks is not clear. But, one this is sure. Neither Dinakaran nor the Palaniswami-Panneerselvam camp would want to precipitate an early election. More than three years of the present term of the State Assembly remain and the ruling party MLAs would be keen to avoid an early poll. The likelihood of more desertions from the ruling camp to Dinakaran’s rebel group are very much on the cards. Nineteen MLAs loyal to him were disqualified by the Speaker. They have challenged the decision in the Madras High Court. Following Sunday’s shock, what stand the State counsel takes would be watched keenly.
At another level, the suspicion about the DMK boosting Dinakaran in R K Nagar in order to intensify divisions in the AIADMK cannot be dismissed lightly. The DMK candidate came third and lost his deposit. The DMK leader Stalin might espy an opportunity for an early return to power if Dinakaran is allowed to grab control of the AIADMK. Of course, Dinakaran spent money like water to win the election. The Election Commission had suspended the by-poll in May this year after reports of bribing of voters. Having enriched themselves enormously by exploiting proximity to Jayalalithaa, the extended Saskiala family would find the crores spent to get the better of Palaniswamy and his deputy Paneeerselvam as a good investment for future gains. As for the BJP, the jolt to the ruling duo in Chennai would force it to rework strategy. With the 2019 poll looming large, the party would want to ally with a credible local party. Propping up the ruling faction, which was also recognized by the EC, seems no longer advantageous. Should it conclude that the DMK stands a better chance in the next poll after the turmoil in the post-Jayalalithaa AIADMK, it might gravitate towards the former. Following CBI Judge O P Saini’s controversial acquittals in the 2-G case, the DMK may no longer be untouchable. All in all, uncertainty prevails in Tamil Nadu.
As for the other by-elections, the BJP proved its continuing hold on the popular mind by retaining Sikandra Assembly seat in UP. The winner is the son of the BJP MLA whose death in July caused the by-election. The BJP did well in Arunachal Pradesh as well, winning the two by-elections to the State Assembly. Both seats were earlier with the Congress Party. The Congress suffered another blow when its sitting MLA in Sabang Assembly constituency switched to the ruling Trinamool Congress. In the resulting by-poll, the Trinmool Congress fielded the wife of the former Congress MLA. She won by a huge margin, pushing the Congress candidate to fourth place, behind the CPI(M) and the BJP candidates. Here again, the significant thing was that the BJP increased its vote share from 2.6 percent in 2016 Assembly poll to over eighteen percent. A fifteen percent rise in vote-share in West Bengal can only boost the BJP morale.
