With the ugly confrontation between the Trinamool Congress and the BJP at peak point, all eyes are on the counting of votes in the general elections on May 23. Will the BJP emerge by itself with a workable majority or would a BJP-led conglomerate the National Democratic Alliance have enough seats to form the government? In the event that NDA falls short of the magic mark of 272 would it succeed in getting on board some other parties or groups to chip in and prop up a new coalition?
Will a ragtag coalition of diverse forces composed of the UPA and some regional parties spring a surprise and cobble together numbers that would unseat the NDA? Who would be the leader if a new alliance were to come about and to what extent would the marriage of convenience between the UPA and regional parties prove durable and stable?
The answer to the post-poll arrangement would determine the future course of the country’s governance. The key consequent questions would be the economic direction that the country would take which would be at least partially reflected in the behaviour of the stock markets.
There is near-total polarisation with a pro-Narendra Modi camp dominated by the BJP and the anti-Modi camp with Rahul Gandhi, Mamata Banerjee, Bahujan Samajwadi Party supremo Mayawati and Telugu Desam czar Chandrababu Naidu leading the assault on the current dispensation.
The Bengal violence during the election phase may have left a bad taste in the mouths of millions of voters but most Opposition parties are with Mamata regardless of the merits of the case and have surrendered their right to think. Among the NDA constituents too the polarisation behind the BJP is now complete with the most difficult partner the Shiv Sena having ultimately decided to fall in line and the Janata Dal (U), the Akali Dal, among the major constituents having decided to throw their lot with the NDA.
There inevitably are some fence-sitters like the AIADMK, the fledgling party of Jagan Mohan Reddy who wields considerable influence in Andhra, the taciturn K Chandrashekhar Rao of Telangana Rashtriya Samithi who is seeing visions of leading a regional front to power and the suave but calculative Naveen Patnaik who scrupulously refrains from taking sides and keeps everyone guessing.
There are other groups that are apparently negotiating with both sides and are waiting for an opportune time to switch sides. Indeed, much is at stake in this Lok Sabha election and there will indeed be no dearth of ambitious players after the results are out and done with.
