Ukraine reeling after six months of war

Ukraine reeling after six months of war

The war between Europe’s two largest nations, that stunned the world and threw Ukraine's nearly 44 million inhabitants into panic,has wrought death and destruction on a mass scale and forced millions from their homes

A L I ChouguleUpdated: Tuesday, September 06, 2022, 11:57 AM IST
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Representative Image | AP

Six months ago, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of neighbouring Ukraine. The half-year mark came on the same day — August 24 — as a national holiday celebrating Ukraine’s independence from the former Soviet Union, an event in 1991 noted for its lack of bloodshed. But this year, the August 24 holiday had a different meaning for many Ukrainians, as the country continues to fight for what it calls a “new war of independence”. Over the last six months, the war has been the focus of the world’s attention, particularly the Western world, disrupted the global distribution of food and fuel and left Ukraine reeling.

The war between Europe’s two largest nations, that stunned the world and threw Ukraine's nearly 44 million inhabitants into panic, has wrought death and destruction on a mass scale and forced millions from their homes. The battle has dramatically shifted across the country, but wherever it has travelled, it has left ruinous devastation in its wake. The magnitude of the war can be measured not just in weaponry and territory but also in its ever-spiralling human cost. The UN human rights office has documented nearly 5,600 civilians killed in Ukraine during the conflict. Thousands of civilians have become victims of the fighting, while those who escaped have fled across Europe to rebuild their lives.

Once a relatively prosperous and young European nation, parts of Ukraine now lie in ruins. The war has prompted Europe’s largest refugee crisis since World War 2. According to the United Nations refugee agency UNHCR, more than 13 million people have been forced to flee their homes. Nearly 6.7 million refugees have dispersed across Europe, with Poland taking in the largest share, and another 6.6 million people are internally displaced within Ukraine. Most Ukrainians who have fled the country are women and children. The European Union's migration department has said almost half a million Ukrainian children have been integrated into schools in EU countries.

As the war has stretched on and shifted course, many Ukrainians are going back home. According to a survey by the International Organisation for Migration, 5.5 million previously displaced people have returned home. While both sides have reported losing military personnel since the invasion began in February, exact figures are hard to come by as each country is reluctant to admit losses and often inflate the number of enemy fighters they have killed. The Ukrainian military recently has said it has lost 9,000 military personnel and also claimed to have killed or wounded over 45,000 Russian soldiers. But Russia has been releasing scant information on military casualties.

In 2014, Russia invaded and annexed the Crimean peninsula from Ukraine. Since then, the conflict between Russian-backed militants and Ukraine has been locked in a stalemate. In February, according to Ukraine's mission to the UN, Russia controlled about 17,000 square miles of Ukrainian land; six months into the full-scale invasion, Russia has expanded its control over Ukraine’s territory almost threefold: about 20 percent of the country or about 47,000 square miles. The line of contact between Russian and Ukrainian forces extends 570 miles.

Since the war began, dozens of countries have pledged billions of dollars in military aid, including weapons systems and training. Most of the aid has come from the US — about $10.6 billion — and more will be coming from an aid package passed in May. The EU has given billions of euros since February and recently pledged to give 8 billion euros more in financial aid over the next six months. In terms of economic warfare, EU member states and another 18 countries have levied individual sanctions on Russia. But sanctions, according to experts, could have limited effect on Russia’s export potential.

The impact of the invasion on Ukraine’s economy is devastating. In April, the World Bank estimated that Ukraine’s economy could shrink by 45% this year. In 2021, Ukraine’s GDP was $201 billion; it is likely to contract between 35 to 40% by the end of the year, according to the country’s economy minister. Ukraine’s agriculture ministry has reportedly said that grain exports are down 46% from last year due to the five-month blockade of the country’s Black Sea ports. The country’s agriculture sector, despite a UN-brokered deal in July to allow food shipments to depart from Ukraine, is still expected to take a huge hit. Ukraine’s steel industry has also been badly affected. The conflict has reportedly cost Ukraine over $113.5 billion in damages and the Kyiv School of Economics has said the country will require more than $200 billion to recover.

After six months of war, neither side is ready to stop fighting, despite the losses Ukraine and Russia have sustained. Ukraine wants its occupied territories back and Russia seems determined to keep the conflict going to keep inflicting more pain on Ukraine and, by proxy, the west also, as Moscow would want to prolong Europe’s pain over energy costs. Russia probably believes the winter will play to its advantage. But both sides are said to be struggling for momentum and appear combat-exhausted. Russia may not have achieved what it hoped for at the beginning of the invasion, but it now holds large swathes of Ukrainian territory in the east and south.

While Russia sees winter as an opportunity, Ukraine is reportedly anxious about humanitarian issues because there is no gas heating available for apartment blocks in Donetsk province and other frontline areas. Humanitarian officials are predicting a fresh wave of migration in the winter with probably as many as 2 million people crossing the border into Poland. Defence analysts are of the view that spring could be the time for a renewed attack in what is likely to be another fighting season.

The writer is a senior independent Mumbai-based journalist. He tweets at @ali_chougule

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