Trump is coming. Trust Modi to pull out all the stops to welcome him like royalty. Delhi and Ahmedabad, the two cities the US President will spend the two days in India, are being spruced up. In Ahmedabad, where they are furiously at work erecting a high wall to shield the dignitary from the ugly reality of a shanty township, he will address a Namastey-India jamboree à la Howdy Modi in Houston last September when the Indian Prime Minister was on a State visit to the US. Expect large crowds lining up the route from the airport to the venue, waving the US-Indian flags to suggest a new high in the Indo-US ties under the two not-so-different leaders of the world’s largest and the most powerful democracies respectively. Both Trump and Modi love hype and hoopla. And there will be plenty of it on display on the two-day visit next week of the most powerful man in the world. Free recently after the Senate acquittal, the impeached President Trump hopes for re-election in November. Given the internal strife of the Democrats, as of now he seems on course to win another term, especially with his popularity ratings close to 50 percent thanks to a booming economy. In his second term, Modi still has four years before another election becomes due. Should Trump win re-election, as seems most likely, a good rapport between him and Trump can help bolster ties further between India and its second-largest trading partner. Trump is obsessed with reducing deficit in the $140- billion bilateral trade. However, a trade agreement seems unlikely on this visit. The US Trade Commissioner opted out of a preparatory visit ahead of the presidential visit following the failure of the respective sherpas to locate common ground. Trump has renegotiated trade arrangements with almost all major trading partners of the US, insisting on reducing the US deficit. The disruption in global trade stemming from the continuing trade war between China and the US continues unabated, with negotiations see-sawing between hope and dejection as the two sides thrash out a new trade agreement. With India, Trump has been no less demanding. Calling India a ‘tariff king’, two years ago Trump imposed levies on 14 per cent of Indian exports. Last year he withdrew the Generalised System of Preferences from Indian exports which specially affected small and medium enterprises. When India clamped fresh duties on the import of medical devices, Trump responded with higher duties on Indian steel and aluminium exports. He specially singled out for mention the high duty on Harley Davidson motorcycles. The latter might be eased, especially when even with reduced duties the market for these high-end two-wheelers remains rather minuscule. Aside from the trade agreement, India might ease the pressure by stepping up higher imports of oil and gas from the US which is now energy-surplus. India will also likely sign the agreement for the follow-up acquisition of specialised military helicopters at a cumulative cost of $3.5 billion defence purchases. After Trump lifted the ban on the sale of Integrated Air Defence Weapons System (read missile shield), India is set to acquire it at about $2 billion.
This should please transactional Trump whose America First stance has disrupted old alliances and rankled US allies, forcing them to contemplate their own security arrangements rather than rely on the US which is not only in a protectionist mood but is keen to shed its responsibilities as a global bulwark against the growing threat from the authoritarian powers. The US is keen to export dairy and farm products but the protectionist inclinations of the Modi regime come in the way. Politically, there has been a welcome end to the hyphenated relationships, with visiting dignitaries no longer feeling obliged to stop over en route to India or on the way back. Trump is not headed for Pakistan. Nor is he likely to inject the irritant of the Article 370 removal and/or the situation in Kashmir in the Indo-US bonhomie. Trump’s lead might help some of the more itchy Congressmen harping on Kashmir to lower their pitch. If all goes well, it will be a win-win for the two leaders.
