Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s assurance to his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi of “prompt and decisive action” against the mastermind and the handlers of the fidayeen in the terrorist attack on the Indian Air Force base at Pathankot has fallen flat so far.
The embarrassment caused to Sharif was self evident as the Inter Service Intelligence (ISI) felt obliged to protect the dreaded Jaish-e-Mohammed (JEM) founded by Maulana Masood Azhar, which has emerged as the pre-eminent terrorist group to whip up chaos and confusion in this country. The Joint Investigation Team constituted by Sharif includes the ISI. It conducted raids in Jhelum, Gujranwala and Bahawalpur districts leading to ‘arrests’ but the key actors like Masood Azhar remain at large.
Sharif’s zestful celebration of his birthday marked by the Christmas day bonhomie with Modi descending on Lahore on December 25 has blown in his face. He cut a sorry figure initially by telling New Delhi it cannot dictate terms to Pakistan. He had bitten far too much than he could chew. The political establishment’s lame excuse this time was that India is not interested in the upcoming Foreign Secretaries level talks in Islamabad, slated on Friday, the 15th of January.
India has emphasised it wants “demonstrable action” against the mastermind and handlers of terrorists. If this demand is not met the upcoming talks remains a non-starter, even though New Delhi is yet to make up its mind on the Friday rendezvous. There are indications if the Modi government is convinced that the investigation in Pakistan is not a sham, as evidenced in the past, the talks between the Foreign Secretaries may be rescheduled.
Be that as it may, people in this country want India to teach Pakistan a lesson for aiding and abetting transborder terrorism, even though most of the political parties, including the main opposition Congress, have cautioned that India has no option but to keep the engagement going.
It is not anybody’s case that protracted bilateral problems are going to be solved in a hurry. On the other hand it suits the Pakistan Army which wants bilateral relations to remain in a state of perennial flux. The men in uniform own and lord it over 70 per cent of the economic assets in the neighbouring country.
Modi, known for his out of the box thinking, finds himself hamstrung by the terrorist attack at Pathankot which is the second in Punjab in the last six months. The first one occurred in the neighbouring Gurdaspur district which brought to the fore the sensitive border state’s unpreparedness in tackling the terrorist menace. Making matters worse is the widespread drug peddling with the active connivance of the police. The role of the drug cartels in allegedly sneaking in terrorists has serious ramifications. Making matters worse is the widespread drug addiction in the border areas turning generations into vegetables.
For nearly three years now there has been intermittent talk about militancy again rearing its ugly head in Punjab. What is significant is that the terrorist groups want to shift their area of operation from Kashmir to Jammu and its neighbouring areas in Punjab. It is believed that the Punjab police is taking it easy by pandering to politicians in charge of police stations. Only Central agencies probing terrorist activities can expose the political and police patronage extended to drug peddlers.
Punjab Deputy Chief Minister Sukhbir Singh Badal, who met Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh in the national capital, suggested that the Pathankot terrrorist attack should be treated as “disguised foreign aggression.” Tackling terror in Punjab is both the responsibility of the state government and the Centre. The failure is self evident. The state and the Centre cannot absolve themselves of responsibility.
Efforts by Indian leaders to keep the talks going have had its inevitable ups and downs. The million dollar question is can Modi show the way: what the country needs is a new Pakistan policy taking into account all the machinations and devious ways of a neighbour that is waging a proxy war against India by aiding and abetting terrorists, thus prolonging the stalemate. There is no doubt Pakistan is Modi’s big test determined as he is to have good relations with India’s immediate neighbours and putting things on an even keel.
Modi made a big splash when he was sworn in as Prime Minister on May 26, 2014, in the forecourt of Rashtrapati Bhawan after the BJP’s stunning victory in the general elections, with the Heads of State or Government of the Saarc grouping in attendance. Thereafter, the breakthroughs have been few and far between. In the case of Pakistan it has been like chasing a mirage, thanks to the hostility of the military establishment in Islamabad which is still smarting from its humiliating defeat in the 1971 conflict.
All sections in the country agree war is not an option between the South Asian nuclear neighbours. If the government proceeds on the dialogue front as though nothing has changed after the Pathankot terrorist attack, it will be highly embarrassing for Modi. At the same time, there cannot be any quick fixes with the hawks in the Pakistan’s military establishment overrunning the doves, if any. What India needs is to build a badly required capacity in tackling terror effectively.
While the Pakistan Army claims to avert a military crisis, its Chief of Army Staff Gen Raheel Sharif has made it clear he cannot accept status quo on Kashmir. The composite dialogue rechristened as the comprehensive dialogue remains all encompassing and includes Islamabad’s core issue of Kashmir as well.
The writer is a senior journalist and a commentator
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