The sixth and penultimate phase of polling ended onManmohan Singh, Sunday, May 12. Last round is scheduled for next Sunday, May 19. A few hours later, results of the exit polls will be telecast which should keep the guessing game going for another three days till the official results are announced on May 23rd. However, speculation over the number of seats and the character and composition of the new government is already in full swing.
There are those who believe that while it might be hard to beat Modi, but it is quite likely that the BJP on its own might not win majority. This is now the Modi haters’ fervent desire. Deny him a clear majority so that he is dependent on the NDA constituents. They reckon that without a majority of his own, Modi would have to be necessarily amenable to pressures and persuasions from the allies.
In other words, theirs is a recipe for a weak and indecisive prime minister. In fact, someone has suggested that in his second stint as prime minster, Modi should be like Manmohan Singh, ruling by ‘consensus and accommodation’ of allies and others. There is a basic flaw in this reasoning. One, Modi and Singh are as different as chalk and cheese. Modi is assertive, knows what he wants and then goes about getting it as best as he can. Singh, on the other hand, is by nature a submissive, docile man. He is neither firm nor assertive.
He would rather follow than lead. He has never in his long career played the boss. Even when he was prime minister for a full decade, he played second fiddle to the Gandhis and the UPA allies. His ministers did their own thing without nary a thought about administrative and moral scruples. Some of them were thoroughly corrupt but Singh chose to look the other way. He allowed a cash-and-carry system to run for a decade without raising his little finger. On the other hand, Modi is not only personally incorruptible but he brooks no corruption by his ministerial colleagues.
More significantly, Singh was a nominated prime minister, not having won even a seat in a local body election all his political life. On the other hand, Modi is a popular leader who single-handedly led his party and allies to victory. Therefore, he has fully earned the leadership spurs. It will be natural for him to set the tone and tenor his administration. He cannot be led by the nose as his predecessor was, often to the great embarrassment of the country.
For instance, when Rahul Gandhi called the Laloo Yadav ordinance, notified after it had been approved by the cabinet, as nonsense and tore it up in sheer contempt at a press conference, Singh chose to pocket the insult, not even uttering a word in protest. No one can imagine Modi being toyed with so cravenly.
So, even if the BJP falls short of the half-way mark by a few seats, and Modi has to rely on the allies for support, do not expect that he will be a weak and captive prime minister. It is just not in his character. He will rather quit than demean the prime minister’s office by letting others exercise his powers. In any case, by all accounts the NDA seems set to win a majority.
If somehow it doesn’t, there are quite a few regional parties which will most eagerly lend support to Modi in the hope of getting a better deal for their respective states. Naveen Patnaik’s Biju Janata Dal and K C R’s Telangana Rashtriya Samithi as also Jaganmohan Reddy’s Y S R Congress readily spring to mind as likely allies should the results surprise everyone and deny NDA a clear majority.
Indeed, it is not far-fetched to think that even Mayawati might be ready and willing to sup with Modi post-election, especially if the CBI and ED cases against her and family are put on the backburner. In short, Modi is well-equipped to muster a majority in the most unlikely event of the NDA failing to cross the half-way mark.
But it will be a huge mistake to think as prime minster, whether with majority of his own, or with the NDA, or with groups outside of it, he would make a weak prime minister. He is not Manmohan Singh. And we should all be thankful for that.
