Petrol and Diesel, by themselves, have become the most inflammable issues in Indian politics now. The ever-rising prices of petroleum products have the potential to set any political system on fire, if the current developments in India are any pointer. After a long chase to catch an issue that can bring the entire opposition together and also grab people’s pulse, the Opposition found the issue of ever increasing prices of Petrol and diesel. Its true that the fuel hike in India is grossly due to the international conditions and the Indian government has very little to do in this matter. However, firebrand Congress president Rahul Gandhi decided to hit the streets on the issue of petrol prices. Petrol prices in the last few months have sky-rocketed and are now ready to score a century. Petroleum prices always have a cascading effect on the economy.
Considering that the 2019 Lok Sabha elections are eight months away and in all likelihood, Modi will try to project it as a two-horse race between himself and Rahul as the challenger. There is an understanding in the saffron camp that this fight suits Modi and the Hindutva Brigade. It is argued within the RSS fold that Rahul isn’t enough of a suitable boy to combat the charisma, energy, confidence, strategy and acumen and cunningness that Modi brings. Modi, therefore, despite a poor report card, will shine in comparison and people will be left with no option but to vote for him. Skeptics also believe that a burst of Rahul on TV screens is part of the scheme to ensure that no other strong leader from the opposition camp who is capable of overshadowing Modi gets a shot at the spotlight.
Feeble attempts
Rahul, since the Gujarat elections, has been trying to change his image and narrative including with his temple-hopping. Visiting Mansarovar is an endeavour to get rid of the tag that Congress is a Muslim party and the Nehru-Gandhi family indulges in Muslim appeasement. But as of now, his attempt looks feeble. Nor does his name inspire the confidence that he can replace Modi as a competent, decisive and powerful leader.
There is anger for sure against Modi and people are looking for an alternative. But Modi can be confident of the ‘There Is No Alternative’ — ‘TINA’ factor — working in his favour. Rahul himself is to be blamed for this scenario. Politics is about right chemistry and arithmetic. Modi’s unprecedented success lies in his unmatched talent to connect with the people. He speaks with them in a language that resonates but the same can’t be said about Rahul. He is not at ease with crowds. He also does not feel comfortable in the company of senior leaders of opposition; and even within his own team. He is not comfortable with seniors who worked closely with his mother. But a bigger failing than his chemistry is his math. The Congress has to stitch alliances with regional parties. The index of opposition unity will play a very important role if a robust fight is planned to unseat Modi and dislodge the BJP. But as of now, strategic coherence is grossly lacking.
In 1989 and 1996, the opposition moved faster. It had many stalwarts. If in 1989, Devi Lal, L K Advani, Jyoti Basu and NTR played a pivotal role, then in 1996, Harkishan Singh Surjeet and Chandrababu Naidu were the moving force. Similarly, Surjeet was equally influential in 2004’s post-poll alliances.
Now, Rahul has to take up that role. He is the leader of the biggest party and it is his responsibility to talk to everybody, keep them in loop about every development and future planning. But that is not the case. Sharad Pawar and Mamata Bannerji are active but don’t seem to be coordinating with Rahul. As everyone knows, Uttar Pradesh is extremely crucial. The by-elections in Gorakhpur, Phulpur and Kairana have proved beyond doubt that if Mayawati, Akhilesh Yadav and Rahul decide to fight together, Modi can be stopped. There are media reports that Mayawati and Akhilesh are talking to each other and they might forge an alliance but nothing concrete has happened yet. By now, Rahul should have been instrumental in bringing them together. However, Mayawati is drifting towards BJP due to the pressure of investigating agencies.
Elections can be announced any minute In Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. Data shows that in 2003, 2008, 2013 assembly elections, the combined vote percentage of the Congress and BSP beats that of the BJP. So if these two parties come together, the BJP could be defeated. Mayawati seems eager but the same urgency is not seen at Rahul’s front. If he has to make compromises in terms of seat-sharing, then he should do so for the larger goal. Similarly, whether Rahul likes it or not, Aam Adami Party (AAP) is the dominant party in Delhi. It has occupied the space which once was unquestionably the Congress’s. If AAP and Congress decide to come together in the national capital, they can win all seven Lok Sabha seats. The alliance could be equally productive in Punjab where AAP is the main opposition party. Despite the factionalism in AAP in Punjab, the Congress should ignore it at its own peril. Punjab and Delhi together have 20 seats. At a time when every seat counts, 20 seats can prove to be huge in making or breaking a government in 2019. But Rahul seems to be governed by the whims of local leaders who have ulterior motives in keeping AAP away from Congress.
Sena could be lured
In Maharashtra, Shiv Sena has been the biggest critic of Modi since he became Prime Minister. The Sena should have been lured into breaking away by now to join the combined opposition. But the Congress is worried that this might annoy Muslims voters. Rahul has forgotten that to defeat his father, Rajiv Gandhi, the CPM-CPI and BJP decided to take the same path. V P Singh’s government was supported by both the BJP and the Left. Why can’t Rahul find a way to rope in the Shiv Sena?
Indira Gandhi had suffered a huge humiliation during the Janata regime in 1977 but if the Congress does not gain substantially on its paltry 44 Lok Sabha seats, Rahul could be well on his way to political irrelevance except within the Congress. It’s time for him to show the will for battle and nerves of steel. It’s a real do or die situation for Rahul now. If he survives and comes closer to the power, there would be many to cut the cake. But if he looses it would be only Rahul who would go in political wilderness.
Bharatkumar Raut is a political analyst and former Member of Parliament (RS).
