The BJP’s defeat in Bihar in 2015 and success in Assam last May has landed the party in a quirky situation in Uttar Pradesh which is going to polls early next year. The party appears to be on the horns of a dilemma; whether or not to project a chief ministerial candidate in UP. A key reason for the debacle in Bihar is attributed to non-projection of a CM candidate while in Assam projection of a CM face helped the party.
In Bihar, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP president Amit Shah were the face of the party campaign while in Assam local leaders were the prime campaigners. If in Bihar the party attempted to polarise the voters and failed, in Assam it sewed up smart alliances and talked development and won. While it tried to make “jungle raj” a major poll plank in Bihar, its slogan in UP will be “gundaraj” of the ruling Samajwadi Party. It is feared that in a desperate bid to win, the BJP may also be tempted to trigger communal polarisation in the heartland. Only time will tell which way UP will go – Bihar or Assam?
UP, sending 80 MPs to the Lok Sabha, of which the BJP had bagged 71 in 2014, is the gateway to Delhi and the heartland state holds the key to Modi’s return as PM in 2019. Any mishap in UP can sour his dream of a second inning at 7 Race Course Road.
In Assam the party did not have many leaders while in UP it is facing a problem of plenty, and many of them chief ministerial aspirants. And hence picking a CM face is fraught with risk as caste and social engineering is a key factor behind winning the election.
As of now, those in the reckoning are: home minister Rajnath Singh, Yogi Adityanath and former CM and governor Kalyan Singh (sons of the soil), Varun Gandhi, Smriti Irani (all Lok Sabha MPs). No doubt, they are high profile leaders but none belong to any numerically dominant caste.
Muslims constitute roughly 19 per cent of voters in the state and are in a position to influence around 300 out of the 403 constituencies. Nearly, 35 per cent voters comprising Muslims, Yadavs (Samajwadi Party vote bank) and Jatvas (BSP chief Mayawati’s fellow caste men) can be counted out of BJP kitty and the remaining 65 per cent is not a homogenous configuration, though the BJP has good support base among non-Yadav OBCs and the eight per cent Rajputs, 13 per cent Brahmins are a bit alienated from the party. Roughly 45 per cent comprising OBCs, EBCs and dalit sub-castes vote differently. Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar is trying to wean nine per cent of his fellow caste men, Kumris, away from BJP.
Trying to cash in on Brahmin disenchantment with Modi, Congress election strategist Prashant Kishore is strongly rooting for projection of a Brahmin CM face in UP. His first preference was Rahul Gandhi, if not, Priyanka Gandhi. As old guards in the Congress expressed reservations over projecting a Gandhi family member as CM candidate, Kishore is struggling to find another marketable Brahmin face. UPite and former Delhi chief minister Sheila Dikshit, who has commendable development track record, is also in Kishore’s radar.
While the SP and the Congress may be game of the BJP, a resurgent BSP may not be a push over. The SP suffers from serious anti-incumbency while the Congress is handicapped by absence of strong state leaders as well as a well-oiled party machinery. And the BJP, which peaked in the Lok Sabha polls, will find it difficult to recreate the magic formula of 2014. Mayawati could queer pitch for SP and the BSP. If she is able to revive her Brahmin-Dalit-Muslim alliance and if the BSP and Congress decide to tie up, the combine could emerge formidable. Mayawati is yet to open her cards.
In the run up to the 2012 assembly elections, Rahul Gandhi run a high octane campaign against the BSP government but the fruits of his drive went to the SP, which got 29.15 per cent votes and wrested power from BSP winning 224 seats. The BSP secured 25.91 per cent (just four per cent less votes than the SP) but bagged only 80 seats. The Congress secured 11.6 per cent votes and 28 seats. The BJP got 47 seats and 15 per cent vote share.
Conversely, the BJP and SP could reach a covert understanding to neutralise their opponents. Communal polarisation could suit both the parties. To woo the dalits from Mayawati’s party and in a symbolic gesture, Amit Shah recently had meals with a dalit family in their home. Nonetheless, BJP’s dalit outreach suffered a setback after RSS ideologue and head of Indira Gandhi National Centre for the Arts, Ram Bahadur Rai, reportedly “insulted” Bhimrao Ambedkar as he dismissed the latter’s role in drafting the Indian Constitution as a “myth”. His comments, though he denied the interpretation, has handed a potent weapon to Mayawati.
On the eve of Bihar polls, RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat’s call to review caste-based reservations had given ammo to OBC leaders such as Lalu Prasad Yadav and Nitish Kumar, harming BJP’s interests.
It remains to be seen if the BJP will try to neutralise caste polarisation with communal polarisation. Already attempts are made to revive the unfortunate Dadri incident when local resident Mohammad Akhlaq was lynched for storing “beef” in his refrigerator. BJP has the advantage of having its government at the Centre, 71 MPs from the state and huge resources. Nevertheless, much will depend on the index of Opposition’s unity. If BSP and Congress reach an understanding and if the Muslim community resort to tactical voting, Amit Shah may then find it difficult to conjure his 2014 magic.
