A combination of three unrelated events — crash of the stocks markets under the impact of the Chinese fall, the massive agitation by the powerful Patels of Gujarat demanding reservations as other backward castes, and the continued failure of the central government to find a solution to the demand of the agitating army veterans for one rank, one pension — have once again driven home the lesson that you cannot rule a country with the size and complexities of India’s problems with hubris alone. No one is against the leadership’s display of confidence, but that has to be matched with action.
Take, for instance, the one rank, one pension issue. Howsoever intractable the problem may be, and whatever the ramifications, the simple point is can a democratic country like India afford a situation where the army’s retired soldiers have to squat on the streets for the implementation of the promise made by the prime minister from the ramparts of the Red Fort. What purpose does it serve for the union defence minister to say that the demand has been accepted in principle and the PMO is looking into it? In a country where serving the army is like a family tradition, can anyone calculate the cost of the negative impact this dilly dallying has on the soldiers morale when they are fighting a war against Pakistan? Let us not be under any illusion. The daily shelling from across the border is a war. We may not declare it as such.
The only legitimate conclusion that can be drawn from this situation is the government of the day simply lacks the competence and the political will to come out with a solution that it feels is just and fair. The delay by itself is an admission of incompetence, or else, no prime minister, much less someone endowed with Narendra Modi’s persona would have sounded so helpless from the ramparts of the Red Fort.
The second issue relating to the Patel’s agitation in Gujarat is more serious and shines a not so healthy light on a clutch of problems. The critics of the present regime may derive some justifiable pleasure from this development in the prime minister’s home turf. The agitation after all began from his home turf in Mehsana, and there could be some justification for denouncing the much touted Gujarat model of development and pronouncing its failure. But it should be remembered that at least in the near term future of the next three and half years, the country has to live under prime minister Narendra Modi’s regime. The only way to hit at him politically is to defeat him in the elections. The kind of street power that has been put on display by the Patels under the 21 year old Hardik is of a variety of mobocracy that has its own perils. Whatever be the internal dynamics of the power struggle within a post-Modi Gujarat, and whatever be the conspiracy theories, there is no gain saying that the sort of headlines that emerged last week undermine India’s democratic institutions, howsoever flawed these may be. In this context we are yet to have an accurate balance sheet of the Aam Aadmi Party type of phenomena in our polity. Besides, the questions that need to be asked are whether it would be in our national interest to keep relooking at inflammable issues like reservations with such regularity.
This is not to deny the power of issues raised by the Patels. Jobless growth has been a feature of our economy. For Gujarat only example would suffice. The Reliance refinery at Jamnagar is the biggest in the world. It was set up with an investment of Rs. 54,000 crores. It has a record of being commissioned in the shortest possible period of 36 months. But then its state of the art technology does not offer any employment opportunities, and only 2,500 persons have found jobs. The speed with which the project was cleared completed and installed make Modi a darling of the corporate sector. But then this prosperity of the region bypasses the locals. The examples can be added, with the Tata’s Nano project in Sanand telling us its own tale. However, you cannot miss the big picture that the gap between the rich and the poor is quickly growing and the poor seldom have any credible hope of breaking the vicious crippling cycle of no jobs and poverty. Surely Modi did not break this cycle while he presided over Gujarat, or else lakhs of business savvy Patels would not be on streets at the call of a mere 21-year old, whatever be the powers behind the machinations.
The third symptom is the government’s reaction to the development at the stock markets in the aftermath of the great Chinese fall. There is an impression being created by the top policy makers that the Chinese fall is a good thing for the Indian economy. It is once again a sign of the collective hubris that has been present in this political dispensation even before it came to power. But the fact that after 15 months of struggle to bring in a land acquisition law that would match its vision, the Modi Sarkar is on the path of going back to the much aligned 2013 law enacted by the UPA tells us something about the capacity of the government to deliver. We were told that the mere advent of a Modi Sarkar would do wonders for the economy. Now the crude oil prices are almost at one third of the levels that prevailed during the UPA rule, but the much promised recovery is yet to be seen. No Indian would like to miss an opportunity to replace China as the growth engine of the global economy. But that requires some action to be taken, not just an assertion that we can do it. Nor does the BJP serve any purpose by blaming the Congress for blocking the passage of the laws. Once again you can only score debating points through this route and not improve the economy. Progress does not come by hubris alone.
