With atrocities against the Dalits unabating, there are indications they are gearing up for the crucial battle at the hustings aimed at rattling the BJP in next year’s general elections. Far fetched as it might seem at this juncture, it has the portends of pushing the ruling NDA at the Centre on its backfoot.
Barring the reverses in Delhi and Bihar after the Lotus party’s stunning victory in the 2014 general elections, when the BJP secured a majority on its own for the first time in the Lok Sabha, they have enlarged their grip ruling in no less than 21 states in the country at this juncture.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has acknowledged had it not been for B R Ambedkar, who had been the beacon for the upliftment of the poor and the under privileged, he would not have become the Head of Government. There is, thus, a new found sense of purpose on the part of Modi as well as the Lotus party in eulogising Ambedkar, the father of the Constitution in celebrating his 127th birth anniversary last week. They have zeroed in on a Dalit and barrister in Ram Nath Kovind as the country’s fourteenth president. It might well be hard to ignore the Dalits as they are becoming increasingly assertive. The BJP’s tally in UP in 2014 was a staggering 71 seats out of the 80 from the crucial state in the Lok Sabha coupled with sterling performance in the Hindi heartland.
Along with its allies, the BJP led NDA crossed the rubicon of 300 for the first time by securing a comfortable margin of 340 seats in the 545-member Lok Sabha. On the other hand, the Dalit intellectuals are deeply concerned about a political vacuum with the decimation of former UP chief minister Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj party during last year’s assembly elections in the state.
Dalit intellectuals are worried about the BSP resurrecting itself in a year’s time before the 2019 general elections. Nevertheless, sentiments are gaining strength against the BJP. They are hoping a new leadership will emerge soon with an aggressive approach.
With Dalit politics emerging from the community’s social agenda encompassing the steps required to check the atrocities against them, the BJP’s recent strategy of wooing the most backward among the Dalits, particularly in UP, had paid rich dividends. Simultaneously, the recurring violence in Saharanpur has once again affirmed their belief that they are not safe under upper caste rule.
Several Dalit organisations have sprung up in various parts of the country. Even though Mayawati does not support such proliferation, it is hoped deepening fault lines tempered with caste sentiments can bring them together under the BSP umbrella at the time of the elections.
Hopes have arisen of a new Dalit leadership coming together soon for defeating the BJP. The abject frustration of Dalits for centuries of subjugation and humiliation by the upper castes might well be waiting to explode.
That is the assessment of Dalit scholars and intellectuals with alerts being issued regularly bringing to the fore their demands like strengthening the SC/ST Prevention of Atrocities Act, arms licences and arms at subsidised rates, martial arts training, special police force, social security and scholarship to Dalit students irrespective of the family income.
In these circumstances, the BJP has to rework its strategy to retain Dalit support in the 2019 general elections. The Dalits constitute nearly 17 per cent of the population and antagonising them will be an exercise in futility. Along with the minority Muslims, they constitute nearly 30 per cent of the country’s population. Dalit sentiment is steadily growing against the saffron brigade. They emphasise the BJP remains their second choice after the Congress in areas where the BSP is non-existent. However, a few sub-castes like Valmiki and Dhobi neglected by the BSP leadership backed the BJP while Jatavs have remained rock solid with Mayawati.
The problem lies in the reluctance of the BJP’s core constituency of urban upper caste as well as the anti-minority middle class supporters to accept Modi’s mantra of “sab ka saath, sab ka vikas” or development for all. They have no objection to “vikas” but including the Dalits in it is something they cannot accept. In the prevailing circumstances, if they see a Dalit has fared well and not only owns a horse but is audacious enough to ride it, he is brutally killed in Gujarat’s Bhavnagar district. To avoid an unseemly incident, a Dalit groom has sought permission to take out his “baraat” or marriage procession through the main thoroughfare of his village in Uttar Pradesh which is resented by the upper castes.
What cannot be lost sight of is that the BJP has to face the criticism by its ideologue — the Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh — against the quota system facing outrage in Hindutva circles about the prospects of Dalits rising to senior positions in bureaucratic and educational institutions at the expense of the upper castes.
Modi has taken upon himself the task of selling his plan of development for all irrespective of caste or creed despite resistance from within. At the same time, he has vowed to unawaveringly abide by the provisions of the Constitution.
However, his oft repeated talk of “acche din aane wale hain” while campaigning in the run up to the 2014 general elections and the multitude of pledges made has failed to materialise even after completing nearly four of his five-year term in office.
This has led to disaffection and Hindutva activists taking revenge for the Dalit sponsored bandh by burning the house of a Dalit MLA of the BJP. What is disquieting is the spurt in heinous crimes against minor girls like the Kathua horror in J&K, which has a clear Hindu versus Muslim dimension. What happened in Unnao is equally heinous involving the misuse of power by an elected legislator and the total capitulation of the local police. The growing public outcry against such heart wrenching incidents every other day from various parts of the country is a huge wake up call for Modi that protecting women and minor girls in particular assumes the highest priority rather than merely saying “justice will be done”.
T R Ramachandran is a senior journalist and commentator.
