ANANDIBEN alienated influential sections of the community when she tactlessly dismissed their agitation for reservation in jobs. The arrest of young firebrand Hardik Patel and his supporters on the serious charge of sedition angered a section of the community further. Gradually, a community that was the backbone of the BJP in the last two decades turned against it in large measure. The Congress duly exploited the situation to the hilt and pampered the Patidars.
Confronted by a revived challenge from the Congress which has been down in the dumps and an incipient one from Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) which is all set to jump into the electoral fray in Gujarat, the BJP has swung into damage control mode in that key state which goes to polls next year. The resignation of Anandiben Patel as chief minister after her failure to adroitly handle the Patidar (or Patel) agitation and the subsequent Dalit stir are indeed cast in the firefighting mould.
Few would be fooled by Anandiben’s alibi that since she would, in a few months, be crossing the limit of 75 years informally set by the party for holding public office, she is bowing out. Had it not been for the Assembly elections and the realisation that Anandiben did not seem poised to lead the party to victory, the high command would perhaps have held its hand on her replacement.
Despite being a Patidar or Patel herself (from the land-owning caste that constitutes about 14 per cent of Gujarat’s population) Anandiben alienated influential sections of the community when she tactlessly dismissed their agitation for reservation in jobs. The arrest of young firebrand Hardik Patel and his supporters on the serious charge of sedition angered a section of the community further. Gradually, a community that was the backbone of the BJP in the last two decades turned against it in large measure. The Congress duly exploited the situation to the hilt and pampered the Patidars.
In April last, when Mehsana, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home district, was on the boil a second time in less than one year due to violent protests by the Patidars, in her characteristic blunt style Anandiben Patel at a public function in South Gujarat said, “Such agitations happen…my job is to serve the people of Gujarat,” showing disdain for them.
The party high command told Anandiben to be more conciliatory, to soften her ways and served her a virtual ultimatum behind closed doors, but her subsequent mishandling of an agitation, this time by a section of the State’s dalits convinced the Centre that she had to go. Added to that was the shock of the resurgence of the seemingly moribund and leaderless Congress in the panchayat polls in the state and the consequent setback for the BJP.
Even with seven Patidars in her ministry, the Anandiben Patel government appallingly failed to curtail the Patidar stir, hitting the BJP in the local body elections of November-December 2015.
Earlier, when Modi passed on the chief ministerial mantle to her in 2014 after he was chosen as prime minister, Anandiben knew that party president Amit Shah was her bête noire. She took up Modi’s challenge acutely aware of the mischief potential of Shah. Adding to her woes were charges of favouring her daughter Anar’s business partners in a huge land deal.
Her carefully cultivated image as a good administrator — as a minister who handled key portfolios such as education, revenue and child and women development since 1998 with quiet élan — came crumbing with the start of the Patidar agitation within a year of taking over from Narendra Modi.
With 33% reservation for women in all government departments, 50% in local bodies and a host of health and education schemes, Anandiben made women empowerment in the state her priority and built up a solid vote bank. But her manipulative skills were in doubt in a brand of politics in which survival depended on skulduggery.
Dalits are just 7 per cent of Gujarat’s electorate. They have traditionally supported the Congress in Gujarat elections. On paper, their revolt did not appear a big setback to the Gujarat BJP. But the ongoing stir ruined the party’s plans of a massive Dalit outreach in Uttar Pradesh, and effectively demolished the dream of uniting the virat Hindutva parivar in a political coalition.
In the 2012 assembly election, the BJP had bagged 115 seats and the Congress 61 out of the 182 assembly seats. This time around anti-incumbency could pose a threat to the BJP even if it succeeds in mending fences with the Patels. Added to that is the uncertain AAP factor. While AAP is likely to affect the fortunes of the Congress more since both would be vying for the anti-BJP vote, the BJP is conscious that it could even eat into its vote especially if the Patels don’t come around.
Indeed, AAP has made its presence felt in the state, holding as many as 18 protest rallies in the past four months across 33 districts on issues such as the alleged land scam involving relatives of Anandiben Patel and high electricity tariffs.
The Dalits, who are being assiduously wooed by both the Congress and AAP are sore with the BJP because of the silence of its leadership including Narendra Modi over the atrocities committed on them by ‘gau (cow) rakshaks’ who belonged to the Hindutva brigade.
All eyes are now on who the successor to Anandiben would be. Would it be the Patidar leader Nitinbhai Patel, or Bhupendrasinh Chudasama who is the BJP’s Rajput face or the tech-savvy and efficient Saurabh Patel or Vijay Rupani who is the State party president? The negotiating skills of the new leader would be tested to the utmost to win back the lost vote banks and to cultivate new ones. The next few months would indeed be a testing time for the BJP and its Central as well as State leadership in the wake of huge challenges.
This Assembly election would also be an ordeal by fire for Prime Minister Modi. A defeat in Gujarat would be a huge setback for his government and could well jeopardise a second term for the Modi government at the Centre when the country goes to polls in 2019.
