Outcome of election does not hinge on one issue

Outcome of election does not hinge on one issue

A L I ChouguleUpdated: Wednesday, May 29, 2019, 01:37 AM IST
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Tuesday, February 26, was an action packed day in the Indian sub-continent when India claimed that it had successfully destroyed Jaish-e-Mohammed’s terror training camps in Balakot in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. So was Wednesday, February 27, when Pakistan retaliated against Indian ‘aggression’, which India, US and other Western nations described as ‘counter-terror action’.

While there have been claims and counter-claims from India and Pakistan about the nature of the attack and the scale and success of the operation, the fear of escalation of conflict between the two countries seems to have receded after Pakistan’s decision to release Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman.

Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan’s ‘gesture of peace’ was addressed at the international community. But Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s concern is domestic audience and nationalism narrative which has become strident after Pulwama. There were three objectives behind the air strike inside Pakistan: Military, diplomatic and political. The military objective was to tell the terrorist organisations operating from Pakistan that they may not be safe in Pakistan even if they have protection from Pakistani military establishment.

The diplomatic objective was isolation of Pakistan by telling the world that they cannot ignore Pakistan’s support to terrorist organisations operating from its soil. The political objective was to tell the domestic audience on the eve of a general election that India needs the ‘decisive’ leadership of Modi to set everything right – from dealing with Pakistan to making India great again. This message has often been conveyed here and there in bits and pieces earlier but has been played forcefully now.

Of the three objectives, the military and diplomatic aspects have been achieved partially. But the political objective can be said to have been achieved to a greater degree. It is a kind of windfall of good fortune out of the blue that no one really expected less than two months before the general election. If Modi was looking at locking his political script for the election, he has been handed one on a platter by the terrorists.

This script will have three sub-plots: A no-nonsense leader who has the courage to act ‘decisively’ when needed and can be trusted to show Pakistan its place; a ‘nationalist’ party which can be trusted to defend Indian interests and a ‘stronger’ India which has changed the rules of engagement with its demonic neighbour and rest of the world.

The Pulwama terror attack and the cross-border air strike on terrorist camps have given the BJP a key talking point in the coming election. The talking has already begun. BJP president Amit Shah has assertively stated that Modi is the best bet for India’s security than any of the opposition parties or leaders. The prime minister himself stated in a public meeting in Rajasthan that India’s future is in ‘safe hands’ – the hands refer to his leadership/premiership.

Using anxiety about security and war is an old political trick that often pushes other issues and concerns on the back burner. Given that currently security has become our immediate national concern, its use in jingoistic term is being sought to craft a narrative which can produce an electoral bonanza for the BJP.

When former Karnataka chief minister B S Yeddyurappa brazenly stated that the air strike on Pakistan was worth 22 out of 24 seats in Karnataka, he has hinted in no uncertain terms that security is going to be his party’s new political plank for the election. This is not surprising, given that the outrage that followed Pulwama was bound to have political fallout.

The BJP only needed to alter its earlier script by adding national security issue to the election drama. Modi did it perfectly by positioning himself as a super patriot when he promised a tit-for-tat response. The middle class, by now indifferent to development narrative, cheered and hailed him as a leader who can deal with Pakistan decisively.

With development having lost its electoral magic and the opposition making its politics believable with different levels of unity becoming somewhat feasible, BJP was staring at a tough battle ahead in absence of a magic issue. The last six months have been quite tough for the prime minister and his party: Both were on back foot under sustained attacks from the Congress and other opposition parties over several issues:

Rafale, agriculture crisis, unemployment, fudgy job data, the trouble in Kashmir which had reached a boiling point, mounting NPAs of public sector banks, attacks on institutional freedom and alleged misuse of official agencies like the ED and CBI to target opposition leaders. But suddenly these issues seem to have been forgotten under the onslaught of a nationalist tune.

With hyper nationalist sentiment and security as an ideological platform replacing the anxieties of the middle class, an election centring around security and narrowly-defined patriotism has amended the rules of the game for now. The Opposition, which looked quite strong a fortnight ago, has also succumbed to the same logic of national unity and demonology of Pakistan.

How it scripts its own narrative to counter the BJP’s plot which seems to suggest that a vote for BJP/Modi will be a vote for India remains to be seen in coming days and weeks. But one thing that appears somewhat certain for now is: after Pulwama the political outcome of the general election may favour BJP and Modi.

Political analysts and psephologists are unanimous in their view that Pulwama will benefit Modi and his party in the Hindi heartland. But pan-India the gains in terms of vote share and seats may not be significant. This is what also happened in 1999 after the Kargil conflict: the Vajpayee-led NDA government returned to power with marginal improvement in seats from 254 to 270, but the BJP’s seat tally remained static at 188.

It was the TDP’s backing with 29 seats which ensured a comfortable majority for Vajpayee. Though Modi has a reason to smile, whether the effect of Pulwama will last till India goes to poll will depend on how the Opposition weaves its own narrative around real issues that concern majority of urban and rural voters who are outside of twitter and social media space.

Indian national election is far too complex. Often it is the sum total of many state elections where regional parties play a key role. In a deeply complex election, many issues and factors matter: Castes, alliances, candidates, economy, income, religion, polarisation and so on. A compelling narrative does matter, but not many elections have been won or lost on a single issue.

A L I Chougule is an independent senior journalist.

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