Outcome along predictable lines

Outcome along predictable lines

FPJ BureauUpdated: Saturday, June 01, 2019, 05:28 AM IST
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Jharkhand is set to have a BJP Government. No question about that. For the first time in the state’s history, a stable one-party rule now appears certain. We will return to Jharkhand in a moment. Of the two states that elected new Assemblies in the seemingly unending poll cycle in the country, it is the election in Jammu and Kashmir which holds far more significance. And what happens after the voters threw up a hung assembly will have wider ramifications far beyond the geographical boundaries of that state. The J&K outcome has not thrown up a clear winner. Not even a clear combination of winners, since all four major parties had fought bitterly against one another. The two regional parties, the National Conference and the Peoples’ Democratic Party, have fallen short of the halfway mark, though the Mufti-led PDP has emerged as the single largest group in the new House. However, it still needs the support of over a dozen members to be able to stake its claim for government formation. The Congress, which has emerged a poor fourth, is keen to support it, only because it is desperate to deny the BJP an opportunity to have a stake in the state’s new government. However, even if the Congress props up a PDP Government, it would still be hard for it to cross the halfway mark without the combination roping in other unattached members. On the other hand, a PDP-BJP coalition would prove most durable, since between them, they have more than 50 members in the 87-member Assembly. This is the most sensible way to provide J&K a stable, morale-boosting government. Any other permutation and combination for a short-term stab at power would be hostage to the usual `Aaya Ram-Gaya Ram’ syndrome so typical of our elected representatives. The National Conference, with 15 MLAs, would be keen to regain relevance, both in the state and the centre, by fishing in troubled waters. It may encourage the 25-member BJP to try and form a government on its own with the support of a few unattached members. Technically, that is possible. But given that the NC has been rejected for its corruption and misrule, the BJP will disappoint its voters in the state by accepting its offer of support. Even though on paper there are irreconcilable differences between the PDP and the BJP, they should decide to work together for the larger good of the state. A common minimum programme can form the basis of their coalition, with Syed Mohammad Mufti or his daughter, Mehbooba, heading the government, while the BJP gets the deputy CM’s post. The BJP in power in Srinagar will send out a signal at once strong and symbolic to all those who have all along disputed the accession of Kashmir to this country. Pakistan will have reason to feel doubly angry. One, for the successful and largely peaceful conclusion of the polls in Kashmir, and, two, for the ultra-national BJP occupying the seats of power in Srinagar. Even the international community will have to note the momentous rise of a nationalistic party in J&K.

 Even otherwise, the BJP has reason to be pleased with its performance, though its failure to record an appreciable rise in its vote-share in the Valley underlines its inability to reach out to the minorities in general. Maybe a stint in power in J&K would help it establish a better rapport with the people in the Valley. As for Jharkhand, the BJP is sitting pretty, given that a number of unattached MLAs would only be too keen to bolster its numbers in the new assembly. Jharkhand, a state blessed with immense natural wealth, has not had a decent government ever since its formation in November 2000.  The tribal-dominated state has had the misfortune of being shortchanged by the predominantly tribal Jharkhand Mukti Morcha. The emergence of a national party at the helm of the new government in Jharkhand should make for a better and clean government. The father-and- son team of Sorens, who led the JMM, must now sit in the Opposition, instead of partnering anyone or everyone who could help them to retain a stake in power. The BJP should go for a capable chief minister instead of getting bogged down in the irrelevant debate over a tribal versus non-tribal CM selection. Overall, the assembly results confirm the strong pro-Modi mood in the country, while the decline of the Gandhi-led Congress continues unabated. Having sewed up the polls in J&K and Jharkhand, the Modi Government should now get down to the urgent task of governance. The party is quite competent to fight the next electoral contest for the Delhi Assembly on its own.

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