Assembly elections in five states have uncovered many realities about the ruling BJP and the Opposition. BJP has swept four states except for Punjab. Political analysts are divided. Some consider this the semi-final of the 2020 general election, while others believe that positive things can happen within two years. But it is pertinent to understand what should be the priority for the Opposition: the message or the messenger?
Bengal Chief Minister and Trinamool Congress Supremo Mamata Banerjee defeated the aggressive campaign of the BJP in Bengal and became the chief minister for the third time last year. Immediately, after the election, she started projecting herself as an alternative to the Congress party at the national level. The buzz was that she could be the opposition face.
This time, Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party has achieved a historic victory in the Punjab assembly election. Currently, AAP is in power in two states, and the buzz is that Arvind Kejriwal could become the face of opposition. The first statement of AAP was that they can become the alternative to the Congress party. News agency ANI reported that ahead of counting votes in five states, Chadha said, "Arvind Kejriwal is the hope of crores of people. If God is willing and people give an opportunity, he will be seen in a bigger role - that of the Prime Minister - soon. AAP will emerge as a major national political force,"
Every time Congress loses, people conclude the Gandhi family is unfit to lead the party and the Opposition. Eventually, such discussions only strengthen the Bharatiya Janata Party. Because, right now, the crisis of the Opposition is not of a leader but a message or a narrative. The problem is that the people believe that a leader will appear and will defeat Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
There is a crisis of credible opposition. But just finding a face will not solve the problem. For example; in Uttar Pradesh, Akhilesh Yadav of the Samajwadi Party was a strong and credible leader. Moreover, he was also a former chief minister of the state. The UP election was held between two political parties - the BJP and the Samajwadi party-led alliance. But despite having a credible chief ministerial face, the SP could not win. The reason is that "Modi Hatao" can not be the only or the most prominent narrative to defeat the BJP.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi understands this crisis very well. Just after the victory in the four states, the Modi government decreased the EPF interest. This happened when the economy of India is in shambles, prices of everyday goods are on the rise and the unemployment situation has become the worst across the country. After Russia invades Ukraine, the oil price will again increase and under the Modi regime, it has always increased drastically. All the opposition parties have raised these issues during their election campaign. However, these have not resonated with the mass. BJP is exploiting this void to their advantage because there are problems with the messaging.
Undoubtedly, Hindutva and nationalism are the central themes of the Bharatiya Janata Party. But, it is important to understand that the party has not developed these ideas overnight. Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), the ideological arm of BJP has been working on the ground to establish these ideas for decades. Breaking such an idea is not easy. Opposition political parties like Congress tried to focus on explaining who is a better Hindu. Rahul Gandhi also explained the difference between a Hindu and a Hindutvawadi. But, wordplay cannot win elections. Moreover, playing with the ideas of the Hindu religion only strengthens the BJP.
Despite the heinous acts and the ensuing terrible injustices in the Hathras, Unnao, and Lakhimpur case, and the covid mismanagement by the Yogi Adityanath government in UP, the people elected the same Adityanath as their CM with a thumping majority. The issues of mismanagement, crime, unemployment, price rise are real. But, the Opposition has failed to tell the people what their solution is. The major focus of the opposition is to tell people that they are here to defeat the BJP.
India witnessed some of the biggest mass movements during the Modi regime. The protest against CAA and the three controversial formulas was massive. These mass movements even forced the BJP government to withdraw the three controversial formulas and hence, there is no discussion on the implementation of the CAA. The last time the country witnessed such a massive protest was Anna Hazare‘s India against corruption movement. The RSS supported that movement directly or indirectly, and the BJP benefited from it. But today, the Opposition is so divided that they neither unitedly took part in the anti-CAA protest nor the farmers’ movement. All these indicate the lack of a narrative within the Opposition. Neither the farmers' movement nor the anti-CAA movement had a face. But the target should be to fight against the idea, not against a particular person. When the opposition political parties present better ideas, then they would have received the support of the people.
Last year, in Bengal the BJP spent a lot of money, bringing all the top leaders including Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah to poach the senior leaders of the ruling Trinamool Congress. But, Mamata Banerjee stood strong and showed how her government schemes have benefited every section of society. Besides promising new schemes to benefit the people, Banerjee explained how those might contribute to their welfare. This messaging worked and she won.
In the recently held Punjab Assembly election, the Aam Aadmi Party chief Arvind Kejriwal presented a new kind of welfare model. He showed the example of Delhi government schools and hospitals and claimed that his government has worked extensively in these sectors. Kejriwal promised that if his party comes to power then the welfare of the state will happen. A similar scenario happened in Odisha when despite aggressive attacks from the BJP, Naveen Patnaik presented a counterattack and won.
To counter BJP, one needs to focus on more than just Hindutva and Modi. Voters want to see an alternative vision that can bring benefits to their life. This is why it is high time for the Opposition to be united and strategise a common minimum program to present the agendas to the people instead of investing time in finding a new leader.
(The author is an independent journalist based in Kolkata and a former policy research fellow at Delhi Assembly Research Center. He tweets at @sayantan_gh. Views expressed are entirely personal)
