There’s this to be said for Ms Mamata Banerjee as the ruling chief Minister of West Bengal — she is never short of confidence! It appears she may just go in for the next state Assembly elections about two months before schedule. A recent state Government notification scheduling next year’s secondary and higher secondary exams (2016), bringing them forward by a month, provides a clear indication to an early polls. With these exams now scheduled to end next February, the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) is keen to get over the Assembly elections by March instead of May 2016.
Academicians and educationists criticized the idea, pointing out that students will get a month less to prepare for these critically important exams. But the ruling TMC has not bothered to react or respond. If there is one thing the party has established beyond doubt during its tenure, it is its manic obsession with winning all elections by whatever means.
How its political decisions affect the state as a whole never bothers the TMC. Any concern for the economic future of Bengal did not stop it from sabotaging the Tata Nano small car project at Singur. And recently, the state government insisted on carrying on with crucial exams for students on a day the opposition had called a bandh in the state, exposing lakhs of students to intolerable anxiety and tension! As far as the TMC leaders were concerned, this was another proud ‘first’ for their party. It had shown its ‘boldness’ in governance, never mind the price of such bravado for the people.
Mostly ruling parties press for early elections when they feel confident about their prospects and performance. The TMC is no exception. What is unclear is the supposed basis of its apparent confidence. Only the appalling disarray in which the main opposition parties and formations find themselves — the Congress, the BJP and the Left front — has helped the TMC to survive in Bengal.
The question as to whether any party can hope to win only on the basis of the ‘negatives’ of its opposition and a division of votes against it, is difficult to answer. TMC leaders confidently point out that the LF too had won handsomely in the past, on the basis of an anti Left vote split between the Congress, the TMC and the BJP. ‘Why should it not work for us?’ asks a senior TMC leader.
While he may be on good ground here, significantly he did not claim that his party expected to win on the basis of its administrative performance between 2011 and 2015. As an observer sees it, ”The TMC came to power enjoying total support against the weakened Left from the right to the ultra left and the civil society. The complaints against the LF were its nepotism, politicization of the police, economic stagnation, poor law and order situation and governance.”
TMC insiders admit that Ms Banerjee had toyed with the idea of going in for Assembly polls in Nov-Dec 2015 itself shortly after the TMC”s sweep of the civic elections, thanks to its intimidation campaign. She was also worried deeply about the political damage caused by the multi-crore Saradha chit fund revelations, in which the involvement of senior TMC leaders has been proved.
But eventually caution prevailed and bitter relations between the TMC and the ruling BJP at the centre began improving. The TMC supported a few controversial bills in Parliament. The CBI scam into the Saradha scam seemed to slow down. The TMC felt it could at least wait and present another full budget in the election year, as a major throw of the dice.
With a view to regroup for a final all out effort, Ms Banerjee has lost no time in urging her followers to work unitedly and hard. So far however, she has not been able to reduce the level of dissidence and intra fighting within the TMC and its mass organizations. And the opposition parties, too, are bestirring themselves for a strong fight, except the BJP.
The Congress’s erosion of support continues, although the recent visit by party Vice President Rahul Gandhi has helped improved morale. The state party is still undecided as to whether to go in for an alliance with the TMC or oppose it. Defections to the TMC continue. But if the party does go it alone or in an alliance/understanding with the LF, it could still pose a challenge to the TMC.
The LF led by the CPI(M) narrowly increased its vote in the recent civic polls, despite all the intimidation from the ruling party. It seems pressure from the younger leaders and cadres, who support a more aggressive anti TMC line has prevailed, with main leader of the opposition Dr Suryakanta Mishra lending his support to them. This month, the CPI(M) will launch a massive two week long agitation and gherao thanas to protest against the police slapping over 1700 false cases against party cadres and supporters. The CPI(M) has called for support from all other left groups like the Maoists and the SUC in its agitation. Opposition parties are also encouraged by the success of their local bandhs and state wide agitation programmes which are drawing bigger support than before.
The sole exception is the BJP. At a time when this party should have the opposition formations running helter-skelter, because of its clout at the centre, the state party continues to remain weak, indecisive and short of ideas under the leadership of Rahul Sinha. Except in pockets of Birbhum the party has not launched a single mass agitation as yet, although leaders like Ms Rupa Ganguly and others have been fairly active at the field level.
But to make its mark and be a force to reckon with, the BJP still has miles to go in Bengal. (IPA Service)
