Modi and the BJP may have won the battle of perception in the immediate aftermath of demonetisation. But over-confidence kills and the BJP can ill afford this.
The virtual sweep by the BJP in the civic elections in the Union Territory of Chandigarh close on the heels of impressive civic poll performance in Mahararashtra and Gujarat and assembly by-election wins in Madhya Pradesh signify that despite the manifest hardships in the wake of demonetisation the people are not prepared to dump the party just yet.
In all these states, the fiasco over demonetisation was the main poll plank of the Congress as the principal opposition but with the credibility of the opposition being at a low ebb, there was a TINA (there is no alternative) factor that seemed to have worked in the BJP’s favour.
This is not to say that the BJP is unchallengeable, but that nemesis has not struck the ruling party at the Centre and people at large feel that demonetisation was not bad in principle but its implementation was faulty. The masses, still taken in by the powerful and convincing rhetoric of Prime Minister Narendra Modi feel that there would be light at the end of the tunnel. They see in the unsparing raids on black money hoarders a hugely positive sign.
The Opposition has certainly not helped its cause by wasting an entire Parliament session on mindless bickering and appalling negativity when they had a golden opportunity to put the government on the mat. In the eyes of the people, while the ruling BJP held promise of better times, the Opposition looked obscurantist and out of tune with modern times.
This is not to say that the millions who have been forced to wait in queues for paltry sums of their own money in banks are not upset. They surely are. But they are prepared to wait for some more time especially because they do not see the artificially-coalesced and disparate opposition parties as a panacea for the country’s ills.
Had the Congress stuck to its early line that it was not opposed to demonetisation per se and if it had waited before coming down hard on the move, foregoing the temptation to be part of a 16-party Opposition front in the early stages, it may have won over more people. Instead, its leadership, devoid as it is of a spine, chose to pitch in with its immature and myopic leader Rahul Gandhi who continues to be clueless about what should be his party’s strategy. Bihar’s Nitish Kumar and UP’s Mulayam Singh Yadav were cleverer as they hedged their bets and moved with caution.
The manner in which some of the Opposition parties got upset with Rahul for having met the Prime Minister with his partymen to the exclusion of ‘allies’ showed the fragility of the alliance. Such blunders are bound to be made when senior Congressmen fear advising Rahul who is after all an upstart and needs to learn the ropes in crooked Indian politics.
Prime Minister Modi met the Congress team for all of five minutes, telling Rahul at the end of it ‘aap mila kariye’ (do meet me more often). That the Congress delegation took up only the cause of UP and Punjab farmers exposed it as conditioned by an eye on the upcoming assembly elections in the two states.
Modi and the BJP may have won the battle of perception in the immediate aftermath of demonetisation. But over-confidence kills and the BJP can ill afford this.
The masses were indulgent when Modi told them that he would get over the ill effects of demonetisation in 50 days. There have been statements coming forth from Central ministers now that filling up new currency notes in ATM machines of banks and making enough money available for all at bank counters would take a while longer. A week or two may be okay but an indefinite wait could well prove costly for the BJP.
Elections in the crucial state of UP and in Punjab may well be two or three months away and their results could make or mar the BJP. Any complacency could well play havoc with its chances especially if the Samajwadi Party and the Congress were to forge an electoral alliance and go all out against the BJP and the BSP which have no chances of coming together, given the BSP supremo’s dependence on the Muslim vote and the antipathy of Muslim voters towards the BJP.
Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav makes no bones of his preference for an alliance with Rahul’s Congress. Cleverly, the BJP has, for quite a while, built bridges with Mulayam Singh Yadav but the grand old man of UP politics could well succumb to his son’s pressures, seeing the benefits that could accrue from it.
If a SP-Congress alliance does work out, Modi’s vote-catching skills would be put to their severest test. A lot would depend too on BSP supremo Mayawati’s success in weaning away the sizeable Muslim vote from the SP-Congress combine—no mean task by any standards.
For the BJP to underestimate the Congress in such a battle would be a monumental folly. Rahul Gandhi may be a slow learner but he is nevertheless learning from a new master of strategy and deception—Prashant Kishor. Indeed, Rahul may not be as commanding an orator as Modi but he is seen listening to people as well as colleagues and is trying hard to work by consensus.
Without the alliance with SP and given the potential triumph of the BJP in overcoming the cash crunch forced on the country by demonetisation, Rahul’s Congress may be nowhere and the ‘Pappu’ tag on Rahul may be irreversible. But this is certainly not the time for the BJP to be complacent and smug in the belief that Modi’s charisma would make up for everything.
