A keen battle awaits the BJP in the Chhattisgarh assembly elections as it fights anti-incumbency against a Congress that is bent upon showcasing a win there as evidence that Rahul Gandhi is on the ascendant. Last week’s defection of the Congress state working president Ramdas Uike to the BJP and the Bahujan Samaj Party’s snapping of links with the Congress are two big blows to the grand old party which was flush with optimism over the disenchantment of people at large with the BJP.
That the BSP has entered into an alliance with estranged former chief minister during erstwhile Congress rule Ajit Jogi who is rumoured to be cosying up to the BJP has sent jitters down the spines of Congressmen. Jogi is a smart operator and is deeply upset with the Congress high command which once doted on him. The BJP has been in power since 2003 and in 2013 had bagged 49 seats as against 39 won by the Congress and one by the BSP.
This time around, however, the BSP-Janata Congress combine (Janata Congress is Jogi’s party) is a third force that could mar Congress chances especially if it enters into a secret deal with the BJP on post-poll tie-up. Mayawati’s estrangement with the Congress was a reflection of the latter’s poor handling of alliances especially at the Central level.
True, Mayawati was a hard bargainer while the Congress was offering a mere five seats in a House of 90 but a way could have been found to forge an alliance on mutually-acceptable terms. The Congress-BSP alliance also fell through in Madhya Pradesh and that could cost the Congress dear. Evidently, with this background, the BSP-Congress alliance is unlikely to come through even in the Lok Sabha elections and a huge beneficiary of this would be the BJP.
Whether the tax cases against Mayawati had something to do with her estrangement with the Congress as a sop to the BJP to go slow on the cases is a moot point. Under the Chhattisgarh arrangement, while BSP will contest 35 seats, Janata Congress would try its luck from the rest. Together the two parties will seek to capture the scheduled castes and tribes vote bank with both Mayawati and Jogi claiming to be their messiahs. Chhattisgarh has 10 seats reserved for SCs.
Apart from this, 29 seats are reserved for tribals and the SC population is over 10 per cent in the other seats. With Prime Minister Narendra Modi expected to make an impact on after full-swing campaigning starts and Raman Singh fully exploiting the advantage of incumbency, the tide against the BJP could well turn in the coming days.
