The ongoing stalemate on seat-sharing between the two sets of allies in Maharashtra is a reflection of the heightened ambitions of rival politicians, something natural in a field where the possession of power alone brings untold gains and benefits. Each ally is out to grab what it can, through bluff and bluster, if possible, and through blackmail and boycott if pushed to the corner. It matters little that the threats and counter-threats are being issued openly without any fear that the voters, the only people who should matter, might take a dim view of the dog-fights. Given that the outgoing Congress-NCP alliance is deservedly on the back foot for its mis-governance and rampant corruption, the opposition Sena-BJP alliance was expected to put its best foot forward, for it to be able to win the coming poll easily. Unfortunately, the fact that the popular mood is conducive to the return of the Sena-BJP to the Mantralaya after a long gap of fifteen years, paradoxically, may have caused the two partners to fight over seat-sharing. The BJP, post its stupendous success in the parliamentary poll, does not seem inclined to allow the Sena to stick to the old formula on the division of seats. Ideally, it would like to contest an equal number of seats, but, failing that, it might agree to allow Sena to contest a few more seats than itself. But in no case is it ready to persist with the old 119: 169 formula. Since a couple of small allies too need to be accommodated, the Sena is willing to concede a few seats, but is disinclined to go below 150 for itself. This is unacceptable to the BJP. The strike rate of the BJP in the last Assembly election being far superior, the Sena had to yield the posts of the leader of the Opposition to its ally in the two Houses in the state. This fear is central to the Sena approach to seat-sharing. The Sena leader’s chief ministerial ambitions rest on the party winning more seats than the BJP in the new House. The lack of confidence on that score prevents it from yielding to the BJP demand for more seats. Besides, the two parties are hamstrung by the absence of experienced leaders, with Balasaheb Thackeray, and both Pramod Mahajan and Gopinath Munde no longer on the scene to resolve the issue in a cordial give-and-take atmosphere. Uddhav Thackeray himself does not have the stature of the Sena founder; his thrusting of his 24-year-old son in front of course is a childish affront to commonsense. You do not prove anything by such antics. Even as the date for the filing of nominations nears, the two parties show no sense of urgency. Meanwhile, the Congress-NCP ties too appear strained over the same issue, though how far public recriminations are meant to confuse the Sena-BJP and how far the differences over seats are genuine is hard to tell. Should there be no agreement between Sena and BJP, a last-minute deal between the Congress and the NCP cannot be ruled out, something the saffron alliance ought to be fully prepared for. Whether the Sena is under pressure from moneybags, which are allegedly cut up with the Modi Government for not doing their bidding, is not relevant — it may not even be true — but the fact that the saffron alliance will be making a grave mistake if it fails to reach an agreement cannot be denied.
The Sena should realise that its Lok Sabha performance was solely due to the Modi factor. He is expected to throw himself into fulltime campaigning in the state elections as well. Besides, the young Sena leaders might not know that back in 1977, the Congress(O) constituent in West Bengal, which by then had adopted the Janata Party name and flag, had failed to reach an understanding on seat-sharing with the CPI(M) in the post-Emergency Assembly elections. The two parties fought the election separately. And the CPI(M), which had only wanted a few more seats than the Congress(O)-Janata Party was willing to concede, went on to win the state easily. And remained in power for over three decades. Meanwhile, Narayan Rane, that renowned paragon of financial and political morality, taunting the Sena-BJP sounds like the devil quoting the scripture. Rane should take care of his own chief ministerial ambitions in order to further feather his already brimming nest of illicit goodies, instead of ruing the lack of leadership in the saffron combine. Isn’t it enough that the saffron combine does not have to, any longer, suffer from a venal leader like Rane?
