Maybe, politicians are human & prone to follies

Maybe, politicians are human & prone to follies

FPJ BureauUpdated: Monday, June 03, 2019, 07:46 PM IST
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Ludhiana: Congress President Rahul Gandhi addresses a public meeting ahead of the last phase of Lok Sabha elections, at Gaggar Majra village, Khanna, in Ludhiana district, Monday, May 13, 2019. (PTI Photo) (PTI5_13_2019_000071B) |

“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.” This is not a summation of the results of recent Indian elections, but a quote from the famous book “The Art of War”, authored by Sun Tzu, ancient Chinese military general-philosopher. It is apparent that the Indian Opposition has failed to comprehend this military truism while fighting the Lok Sabha election.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi pulled off another hat trick with considerable ease leading BJP to yet another resounding victory. Pundits and journalists have come out with different theories as to why Modi won, and Rahul lost. Like instant coffee, some offered an instant solution – “dismantle dynasty,” as if that is the panacea for all ills afflicting the Grand Old Party. But they are not able to name a single leader outside the family who can lead the party out of the crisis. Rather without the Gandhi glue, the Congress is in danger of splitting into several splinter parties.

Is it Congress dynasty that helped Modi to power or undermined the Congress? If the dynasty brought Congress to power for over 50 years and as late as 2004 and 2009, why is it a liability now? And what explains the loss of face of non-dynasts like Mayawati, Mamata Banerjee, and Arvind Kejriwal? If people are so miffed with dynasty why dynastic parties like the Shiv Sena, LJP, DMK, YSR (Congress) and many others won the election? The adage “success has many fathers, failure is an orphan” amply describes Rahul Gandhi’s predicament today. It is, nevertheless good that owning moral responsibility Gandhi resigned as Congress president. But his resignation is not going to help the party unless Congressmen collectively rewire their software to be in sync with new India.

Rahul Gandhi committed three cardinal mistakes that contributed to the party’s humiliating electoral rout even in Amethi, a supposed family pocket borough. First is underestimating the potential of his enemies. BJP’s election machinery was pumped by powerful players like mainstream media, corporate houses, a section of Bollywood and even global stakeholders and mind-boggling cash to fund its aggressive campaign.

Two, the Congress failed to gauge the boost Pulwama terror attack and the Balakot airstrike gave to Modi’s ultra-nationalistic and national security narrative that spurred pro-government but silent undercurrent. Rahul’s political messaging failed to strike chord outside Congress ecosystem.

Third, uncritically believing in the prowess and sincerity of old guards like Kamal Nath in Madhya Pradesh and Ashok Ghelot in Rajasthan to deliver. Even the so-called young Turks such as Sachin Pilot (Rajasthan zero LS seat for the second time) Jyotiraditya Scindia, Jitin Prasada, Milind Deora (all lost) and many others also failed Rahul. Lethargic Kerala Congress leaders mislead him into contesting

Wayanad LS seat. The leaders boasted that the move will increase Congress tally in the South accounting for 130 seats. But the party’s performance in Karnataka and Andhra was pathetic and in Tamil Nadu, it won some seats because of DMK alliance. In any case, the Congress would have bagged 13-15 out of the 20 seats in Kerala but Rahul’s foray into the hill district gave fodder to Smriti Irani to run a psychological campaign that the Congress president is afraid of losing his Amethi seat. Sun Tzu stated, ‘All warfare is based on deception’. Lack of feedback from Amethi was a classic case of Congress’s sloppy perception management. It is said that “perception is more powerful than fact.”

Soon after Rahul raised GST, Modi government tweaked the tax law and managed to contain some disaffection while in issues like Rafale was raised prematurely giving enough time for BJP strategists to cover the flanks before the crucial elections. In “The Art of War”, it is written that one should conceal dispositions and “Don’t broadcast your plans.” Rahul Gandhi worked hard, raised a number of crucial issues relevant to the people, but his “timing” was bad as he unwittingly alerted Modi to go in for course correction.

Again, underestimating the BJP arrogant and greedy Opposition leaders refused even to have electoral understanding in key states like UP and West Bengal. And in the end, BJP had the last laugh. The BSP drew a blank in UP in the 2014 LS polls and yet did not include the Congress in the grand alliance in 2019.

AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal dreamed big squandering his goodwill among a section of people. His greed was such he offered to forge an alliance with the Congress in Delhi provided the tie-up is extended to Haryana, Chandigarh, and Goa, states where it had no solid electoral base. The result was that the AAP drew zilch in Delhi and in Punjab it lost three seats it had annexed in 2014.

In Bihar RJD Chief Tejashwi Yadav was so greedy that he refused to concede a seat even to Kanhaiya Kumar, the most authentic face of Left-liberal-secular face in India. And first time in its history RJD drew blank in its home turf. Trinamool Congress chief minister Mamata Banerjee too underestimated BJP machinery and refused to align with the Congress. Same was the case with the Congress and CPM and both drew blank. In Maharashtra, the Congress-NCP overestimated their strength refused to take Prakash Ambedkar’s front on board; BJP won 10-odd seats due to split in the secular vote.

Maybe, after all, politicians are human beings and prone to follies and foibles. “We simply assume that the way we see things is the way they really are or the way they should be. And our attitudes and behaviours grow out of these assumptions”, says author-educator Stephen Covey.

The writer is an independent journalist.

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