Maratha leader Manoj Jarange-Patil's announcement that he will launch a hunger strike from this week has once again brought the issue of Maratha reservation to the centre-stage of Maharashtra politics. In the recent Lok Sabha elections, the BJP lost many seats in the state and especially in the Marathwada region, because of three reasons. Firstly the distress among farmers, secondly the narrative that the Constitution could be changed if the BJP returned to power with a very high majority in the Lok Sabha, and the big issue of Maratha reservation in Maharashtra. With the Assembly elections just about eight or 10 weeks away, all political parties are watching how the Maratha agitation proceeds.
NCP founder Sharad Pawar held a closed-door meeting with Chief Minister Eknath Shinde this week to discuss several issues and insiders believe the main issue which was discussed was about how to handle the Maratha agitation in the state. Manoj Jarange-Patil has announced that this will be his last agitation. This will be his sixth hunger agitation in the recent past. It is not really clear what he means when he says “last agitation”. But some believe that this is a sign that he will not stop unless his demands are met. His demand that distant family and distant relatives should be included in the list of those eligible to get reservation may not be accepted by the government, as it will not stand in court if it is challenged. Jarange-Patil says that if a candidate is found fit or eligible to get reservation in Maratha or Kunbi category his distant relatives and distant family should also be held eligible for that reservation. The dispute over accepting this demand is likely to continue for a long time. If Jarange-Patil does not withdraw his agitation it will mean that slowly it will become a big issue not just in the Marathwada region but also in the rest of Maharashtra. In Marathwada the BJP alliance could win just one Lok Sabha seat which was won in Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar by Shinde's Shiv Sena candidate Sandipan Bhumre, and many big BJP leaders including ministers from the previous union cabinet such as Raosaheb Danve and Bharati Pawar lost their Lok Sabha seats in Marathwada.
The BJP-led ruling alliance, Mahayuti, has alleged in the past that the Opposition parties in Maharashtra, especially Sharad Pawar’s NCP, have indirectly encouraged Manoj Jarange Patil to continue his agitation. Realising that this could become a political liability NCP founder Sharad Pawar is now taking care to project the image that he is participating in the process of discussion to find a solution to the Maratha agitation issue. This was the reason Sharad Pawar had a meeting with Chief Minister Eknath Shinde recently. However being the wise politician that Sharad Pawar is, he also realised that there is a big political opportunity in all this, and in the upcoming Assembly polls his party can especially take benefit of this in the Marathwada region. In the recent past Sharad Pawar NCP has made inroads in Marathwada especially in Beed, Jalna and Parbhani districts where the party has developed dependable leaders. Sharad Pawar feels that this time over the Maratha reservation issue his party can score well in the entire Marathwada as well as Western Maharashtra region.
The government on the other hand has a two-pronged strategy to handle this agitation. Firstly they are holding talks with Manoj Jarange-Patil about how to handle the situation and find some solution, and secondly the BJP has also floated some leaders who are seen opposing Jarange-Patil or competing with him so that his base gets divided. Shinde's Shiv Sena is seen holding meetings and discussing with the agitators while the BJP is seen getting more engaged with OBC leaders in an attempt to pose some kind of challenge to Jarange-Patil.
It is interesting to see how Manoj Jarange-Patil has specifically targeted BJP leader Devendra Fadnavis in his speeches and media interactions in the past few days, and not Chief Minister Eknath Shinde that much. Insiders say the perception in Jarange-Patil's mind perhaps is that Shinde is trying to open some kind of dialogue with him while Fadnavis seems to be making attempts to create challenges in front of him by fielding rival leaders and empowering some OBC as well as Maratha leaders who will compete with Jarange-Patil in an attempt to cut him down to size. This perception in Jarange-Patil's mind is very crucial from the point of view of the political fallout of the Maratha agitation. It is clear that if the agitation goes on for long it is going to hurt the BJP in the Marathwada region and Western Maharashtra where the Marathas are very powerful. It is obvious that the agitation is going to benefit the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi and its candidates.
Out of the three issues that influenced the Lok Sabha polls, the ruling NDA alliance is fighting hard on two issues. The government has rolled out some measures for onion farmers and soyabean producers, and also announced some help for sugarcane farmers. The narrative created about the future of reservations to the government is overworking to create the right perception, however on the Maratha agitation issue the government at the centre as well as in the state has somehow not found the right solution or even the right path to pacify the agitators. A lot depends now on how the government handles Manoj Jarange-Patil's latest agitation as it could make or break political fortunes for the Mahayuti which badly needs a victory in the Maharashtra Assembly polls after the debacle it faced in the recent Lok Sabha polls.
Rohit Chandavarkar is a senior journalist who has worked for 31 years with various leading newspaper brands and television channels in Mumbai and Pune
