IF only Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi could rein in his alchemical urge to turn political capital into dross and advantage into affliction, the Congress can parley public discontent over demonetisation into majorities in Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur and a good showing in Uttar Pradesh.
Opportunity is knocking hard on doors of the grand old party, offering it a shot at a spectacular comeback in the forthcoming assembly elections. Now if only Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi could rein in his alchemical urge to turn political capital into dross and advantage into affliction, the Congress can parley public discontent over demonetisation into majorities in Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur and a good showing in Uttar Pradesh.
The NDA government would thus get a much-needed poke in the eye, the country would be assured that democratic checks and balances are in place and the aam aadmi could express his resentment through the ballot box. If – and it’s a giant if – the Congress baggage of intra-party feuds, inherent aversion to political coalitions, feudal tendencies and the great leader’s capers, don’t scupper its chances.
In Punjab, the pervasive disgust with the SAD-BJP government and the declining fortunes of the Aam Aadmi Party, have made it a front runner. But the feud between the current and former party chiefs, Captain Amarinder Singh and Pratap Singh Bajwa, undermines its prospects. The Congress High Command lacks the heft to force cooperation between warring factions, largely because it encouraged the feuds in the first place. The hoary divide-and-rule policy, a sound political strategy to keep state satraps in line and at the mercy of the supreme leader when the Congress was the dominant national party, is now not just old-hat but a serious liability.
The Congress needs the solid support of the Jat Sikh community, which both the good Captain and Bajwa represent, in the face of incumbent deputy chief minister Sukhbir Singh Badal’s money, muscle and effective micro-management. The AAP, once a shoo-in for a majority in the state assembly, has lost ground thanks to internal feuds but may yet recover. The challenge for Arvind Kejriwal will be to keep his flock together in a post-election, hung assembly scenario. In effect, the Congress cannot afford to present a disunited face.
A similar scenario obtains in Uttarakhand, where the BJP’s embarrassingly inept efforts to topple the government drummed up support from incumbent chief minister Harish Rawat. But state leaders said to be close to the party High Command are disenchanted with him and would prefer not to see him get a second term. Another challenge for Rawat is the appointment of a son-of-the-soil, Lt Gen Bipin Rawat, as chief of army staff by superseding two senior officers. It’s a clever ploy by the NDA to appeal to the state’s vast population of former soldiers. So here again, the party needs to pull together.
In UP, the Congress has, at the worst of times – as in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections – still managed to pull a section of the upper caste and Muslim vote. Its voteshare in the 2012 assembly elections was a slim 13 per cent per seat contested as compared to 15 per cent for the BJP and 29 per cent for the winning Samajwadi Party. It is clearly number four in the state by a wide margin, but is not a write-off. Its sudden and all-too-brief resurgence in the 2009 Lok Sabha election indicates that the Congress votebase is quite elastic.
Even so, it cannot make a dent by going it alone. In wooing allies, while it is not coming to the table empty-handed, the party does need to address its undesirability as an ally. Both SP and BSP feel that the Congress vote is not transferable and thus does not offer any advantage to its alliance partners. This means that the Congress would have to eat humble pie and settle for a sliver of what it sees as its due. The SP has reportedly offered 58 seats, which means that even with a strike rate of just 50 per cent, it would get more seats in the assembly than it now has. Also, if Rahul Gandhi gracefully accedes to the leadership of UP chief minister Akhilesh Yadav – who is rooting for an alliance in the teeth of opposition from his father Mulayam and Uncle Shivpal Yadav – the two “young” politicians may develop a synergy. Particularly since both are plagued by the old guard in their respective parties.
In Goa, the AAP is offering a stiff challenge to both the ruling BJP and the Congress. Demonetisation gives the opposition a distinct advantage, but the BJP is counting on the low index of opposition unity. It also looks forward to further RaGa gaffes, like his threat to expose Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s corruption. The nation ‘read (his) lips’ only to find them as blank as a dead smartphone.
The author is a senior journalist with 35 years of experience
in working with major newspapers and magazines.
She is now an independent writer and author
