The political situation in Tamil Nadu is undergoing some queer twists and turns in the wake of AIADMK supremo J Jayalalithaa’s death earlier this month. As expected the Centre with the BJP in the vanguard is reportedly calling the shots in a determined bid to keep the AIADMK united.
The Lotus party’s strategists believe it has a great opportunity in taking charge of this Dravidian party which has been orphaned following Amma’s passing away. She was not only a shrewd politician but held sway over the masses. If she felt having an understanding with any party irrespective of the stature of the leader did not suit the interests of the southern state, she just severed ties without batting an eyelid. A case in point is when BJP stalwart Atal Bihari Vajpayee was the Prime Minister for the first time heading a 26-party disparate coalition, Jayalalithaa resolved to part ways in 1998 after being with them for 13 months as they failed to withdraw the corruption cases against her.
The AIADMK is at the crossroads as never before, hugely handicapped as it lacks a leader of Jayalithaa’s eminence and charisma. The political vacuum in the AIADMK has enabled Amma’s confidant Sasikala or ‘Chinna amma’ (younger Amma) as she is known in party circles and her husband Natarajan is determined to ensure she takes over the reins of the party as its all powerful general secretary. The next step will be to replace O Panneerselvam as the chief minister of Tamil Nadu in due course.
Political intrigues and manoeuvres are the order of the day not only by the BJP but the DMK as well. Jayalalithaa convincingly won a second consecutive term earlier in May this year to occupy the seat of power at Fort St George in Chennai. On his part the wily patriarch of the DMK and former chief minister M Karunanidhi and his aides are trying to induce defections of no less than twenty AIADMK MLAs so that the ruling party becomes a minority in the 234-member state assembly.
In a coup well past midnight on December fifth when Jayalalithaa was declared dead Sasikala had managed to secure the signatures of all the 136 party MLAs on a blank sheet of paper. This paves the way for her becoming the general secretary of the AIADMK.
Being a personality based party thanks to former chief minister M G Ramachandran who broke away from the DMK and formed the AIADMK, it has deliberately ignored developing a second rung leadership. Appeal for votes during elections is made by the leader who is idolised by the party’s supporters.
The AIADMK has four-and-a-half years remaining before completing its five-year term. On the other hand the BJP brass desperately wants to have a firm grip on the AIADMK. They are backing Sasikala becoming the general secretary of the party even though the sentiment in the AIADMK is largely ranged against Sasikala. The diehard supporters of Amma insist there is no substitute for Jayalalithaa and that she cannot be replaced.
The BJP is keen to call the shots having intervened and provided all the assistance when a serious Jayalalithaa was being treated in the Apollo hospital in Chennai. A rudderless AIADMK is in a quandary. The Sasikala-Natarajan duo is hoping to cash in on the prevailing situation of flux as Panneerselvam and the ministers are with ‘chinna amma’.
It is natural for the BJP to try enlarging its presence in the country’s south having a tally of 130 seats in the Lok Sabha. It will be to its advantage not to disturb the status quo in the AIADMK at least till the crucial election of the President is completed. The term of the incumbent Head of State Pranab Mukherjee expires in July next year.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi is determined to have a ruling party stalwart installed in Rashtrapati Bhavan for the first time. For this he needs to shore up the votes in the electoral college which elects the First Citizen. As the BJP is nowhere in power in the south comprising Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana along with the lone union territory of Puducherry.
The BJP is also handicapped because of being in a minority in the Rajya Sabha. What is of significance is that the saffron brigade needs to win big in the upcoming most crucial assembly elections in UP. They appear to be on shaky ground for the moment because of the problems following the big ticket demonetisation on the night of eighth November.
Once installed as the general secretary of the AIADMK, Sasikala is hoping to contest from Amma’s constituency of R K Nagar in the state capital before being elevated as the chief minister. The imponderables in this daring and brazen gambit can dash Sasikala’s hopes. That is when the chances of all hell breaking loose and the AIADMK splitting in several factions cannot be ruled out.
Meanwhile, Deputy Speaker of the Lok Sabha M Thambidurai has lost out to Sasikala in becoming the general secretary of the AIADMK, thanks to Panneerselvam and other ministers supporting her. They believe Thambidurai continuing in the national capital because of his contacts with the central leadership is important for the AIADMK. The prospects of his induction in Modi’s cabinet cannot be ruled out as it will send an unambiguous signal that the Centre will protect the interests of Tamil Nadu.
Amid all this a preposterous speculation is rife that Amma passed away much earlier than the official announcement late at night on December fifth. A Tamil newspaper in Malaysia has carried a report that Jayalalithaa died on September 29 after a massive heart attack. This was a week after she had been admitted to hospital on September 22.
Amma preferred the dominant Gounder community members as ministers in Tamil Nadu which included Panneerselvam. They hail from western Tamil Nadu and have taken a march over the others like the Thevars, Nadars, Vanniyars and Dalits.
The writer is a senior journalist and commentator.
