RAHUL will have to create such a system where local leaders are encouraged and empowered to take their own political decisions without making weekly trips to Delhi for the nod of the party high command.
When I wrote my last article last Monday, the elections results of Gujarat Assembly had just arrived and it had become clear that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had managed to retain the power in its most powerful and traditional bastion by winning 99 seats in the 182-member House. The Congress, after waging a fierce battle, fell short and could finish with 78 seats. Though arithmetically, the BJP won the election, the show made it amply clear that the BJP, though had the required numerical majority, had started losing out its glamour and sway over the politically aware Gujarati electorate. If Prime Minister Narendra Modi was responsible for earlier series of victories in Gujarat, he would have to take the criticism for losing 17 seats to the Congress compared to the tally of 2012 elections. This is the time for the BJP and its top leadership to close the doors and do serious introspection to find out what went wrong apart from the usual excuse of ‘anti-incumbency factor’. This exercise would help the party to get prepared for the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.
As expected, the party high command has decided to continue the sitting Chief Minister Vijay Rupani for the second term. Not that Rupani has done magically excellent job and is a viable leader, but simply because there is no replacement for him in the vicinity. After Modi relinquished the Gujarat Chief Minister’s position in 2014, he installed his close confidant Anandiben Patel in the chair. However, she failed to prove and thus, had to be removed to make the room for Rupani. It was during Anandiben’s tenure that the dissidence against the BJP and particularly against Modi’s legacy cropped up. She failed to prevent the emergence of Hardik Patel, who launched the Patidar agitation. This was for the first time in 20 years that Gujarat heard the voice of nonconformity against the sitting Government. The BJP in Gujarat failed to sow the seeds of confidence amidst Patidars. Instead, Hardik was arrested and kept him outside Gujarat for over seven months. This action made Hardik the leader of the so called ‘Have nots’.
Sensing the situation, Congress President Rahul Gandhi made swift moves and took Hardik under his wings. After Hardik started getting nation-wide coverage, it was easier for Rahul to bring two other young leaders, Jignesh Mewani and Alpesh Thakore, both leading the socially backward communities to his side. This combination came handy and the Rahul army that was very weak and demoralised all through the years, due to lack of leadership, suddenly became agile and ready to take on the Modi charisma. This move worked reasonably well.
Failed to pass the poll
However, even after playing these games, Rahul and his Congress failed to pass the poll. This is because despite making all attempts and forceful speeches, Rahul remained an ‘outsider’ for the Gujarati population. Modi, though, has now moved to national politics, he has not severed emotional ties with Gujarat and takes pride publicly to describe himself as a ‘Gujarati’. The sense of he being their ‘own man’ did work on the minds of the local population; that was manifested in the voting pattern.
Modi, during his 12-year stay in Gujarat as the Chief Minister and later, as the all powerful prime minister did a lot for Gujarat, particularly the urban middle-class, traders and lower class rural folks. His plans to develop and modernise series of ports, create new airports, introduction of ambitious multi-crore Bullet Train Project to connect Mumbai to Ahmedabad in five hours, connecting Kandla Port to Middle-East bypassing Pakistan by sea and many other schemes have given a sense of confidence about him and in turn with the BJP Government. The Gujaratis also wisely thought that if Modi loses Gujarat, it would have an adverse impact on his political career at the Centre. People of Gujarat would not like to see ‘their man’ weakened because of his defeat in Gujarat. All these calculations worked and the state gave him the fresh mandate.
After saying all this, the question is what next for Gujarat, Congress and the BJP?
At least half a dozen states would be facing fresh elections to elect their respective State Assemblies in 2018 and early 2019 before the Lok Sabha elections. All parties would surely leave no stone unturned to ensure victories in these elections. However, Rupani has a bigger job to perform in Gujarat now. Apart from fulfilling the promises given to the people before and during the recent polls, he will have to put the state administration in order before it is too late. Rupani has never been seen as a ‘popular’ leader and has spent most of the time in Delhi as an MP. Therefore, now he will have to adjust to Gujarat situation to prove that he is a man of his own. Otherwise, he would always be seen as ‘Modi’s Man’ who takes orders from him.
Fresh lease of life for Cong
On the other hand, the Congress that has received a fresh lease of life, thanks to Rahul’s efforts in two and half months, will have to gear up, become a force to reckon with. As of today, there has been no leader worth talking about in Congress in Gujarat. The process of ‘incoming’ of workers in party has come to a standstill a decade ago and there has not been any effort to make young people joining the party-fold. As a result, the Congress in Gujarat has been reduced to an ‘old people’s home’. The only difference is that here each of the inmates is looking for the first opportunity to escape from the asylum. Now that the party has survived, the local leaders will have to rebuild the organisation and give it a proper shape.
Rahul also has a role to play. He will have to create such a system where local leaders are encouraged and empowered to take their own political decisions without making weekly trips to Delhi for the nod of the party high command. This would be a bit difficult task for Rahul, particularly because whether his grandmother Indira Gandhi, father Rajeev Gandhi or mother Sonia ji have willfully developed this system where all rights remain tightly held by the Gandhis. If Rahul manages to prove that he is a man of his own, he will empower his lieutenants in Gujarat and other states. Unitedly, they can make the Congress stronger.
The author is a political analyst and former Member of Parliament (RS).
