The stand-off on the Line of Actual Control between China and India is a cause of concern but there is no reason for panic. It is not uncommon at this time of the year for the rival border guards to engage in skirmishes due to the lack of clarity on the LAC and often because of aggressive patrolling by the PLA. However, this time the stalemate seems to be different. The Chinese violated the LAC in the Ladakh region well within the Indian territory, roughed up a number of Indian border guards and held them captive for a few hours before releasing them. This was in early May. While India was in the midst of coronavirus lockdown, the Chinese took advantage and moved a couple of kilometres on the Indian side of the LAC. That is where they have stayed while talks at the local commander level have yielded no result. It is argued that the reason for the Chinese build-up at the LAC and their aggressive behaviour in the Ladakh sector is the near-completion of the Daulet Beg Old-Darbuk road by India which will facilitate a faster movement of troops to the region. The Chinese had long stolen a march over India, upgrading their military infrastructure in the region while India was still playing catch-up. However, the completion of the above road within the undisputed Indian territory cannot ordinarily be a cause for China to complain. And certainly the standoff at the LAC this time could not be the handiwork of local military commanders. Given how long it has lasted without resolution and now the Lt. Generals on both sides are set to take it up, it seems the Chinese political leadership was all along in the loop. In the normal course, China ought to be on the back foot because of its failure to warn the world in time about the coronavirus pandemic as also due to its open assault on the autonomy of Hong Kong. Then there was the continuing trade war with the US. All these factors ought to have forced it on the defensive.
Under the circumstances, raking up the old border dispute with India at this time can only be a part of a wider strategy. Having ensured that all its neighbours fall in line and do not murmur a word edgeways against its aggressive designs in the South China Sea, or in regard to its growing shrillness on Taiwan, Hong Kong and the old dispute with Japan over the disputed islands, etc., India refuses to kowtow on the Belt and Road Initiative, being the lone holdout in the entire region. Though India did not sign the joint statement issued by the US, UK, France and Australia condemning the proposed security law which would virtually cripple whatever is left of Hong Kong’s autonomy, China cannot be unaware where its sympathies lie. As the only Asian nation capable of meeting the security threat that China poses to the entire region, keeping India unsettled may well be a part of a well-considered Chinese strategy to divert its energies and resources from emerging as a strong economic and military power. India need not sign joint statements with the Western powers, or explicitly berate China for the flagrant violation of human rights of its citizens, but China cannot be unaware that when the push came to a shove India was quite capable of squaring off with it. Needling India on the disputed border and refusing to settle a long-pending dispute through mutual give and take is the Chinese way of keeping India in check. Nonetheless, India presses ahead with the upgrading of its security infrastructure, a fact that troubles the Chinese who had had the benefit of a head- start in this regard.
Of course, India is no push-over. In 2013, the Chinese had crossed well into the Indian side, putting up tents and moving light armored vehicles, but they withdrew following diplomatic and political negotiations. This time the situation is different. Global mood is against China, particularly against its aggressive diplomacy and militant designs on Hong Kong and Taiwan. With the Prime Minister Modi and the US President Donald Trump discussing matters of mutual interest, including the situation on the India-China border, on Tuesday, and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh exchanging notes with his French counterpart , Florence Parly, China risks being further isolated due to its militaristic approach to foreign relations. Arrogance stemming from economic and military power can prove counter-productive, especially when the Chinese economy is in the grip of a slowdown and its long-suppressed people are called upon to suffer hardships. Economic prosperity for civil liberties can be an acceptable trade-off for some time but eventually awakened people insist on having both. The oligarchs of the Chinese Communist Party risk internal unrest when they go out of the way to antagonise the world at large. It is time the President-for-life, Xi Jinping, realised that arrogance of power can be self-defeating.
