Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is constantly doing a balancing act in a bid to sustain the ruling Janata Dal (U)-BJP alliance and yet fob off criticism that he has fallen into the trap of the Sangh Parivar, compromising his wonted secular image. The tight-rope-act often makes him sound enigmatic, though such are his electoral compulsions that without the BJP it would be hard for him to become chief minister. It is because the RJD, the main Opposition party in the State, is committed to make Tejashwi Yadav, imprisoned party chief Laloo Yadav’s younger son, as chief minister, while JD(U) on its own or in alliance with other parties is unable to win a majority. Therefore, Nitish often tests the patience of the BJP on issues which are central to the saffron party’s ideological thrust. For instance, the Bihar Government was careful not to find fault with the controversial Citizenship (Amendment) Act, but in view of a climate of fear built up over the proposed National Population Register and the National Citizenship Register, Nitish moved fast to defang the Opposition propaganda. On Tuesday, in a move which took the BJP by complete surprise the State Assembly was made to adopt a resolution against the NRC and to recommend that the proposed NPR be modeled only on the one conducted during the UPA regime in 2010. No additional questions or demand for documents ought to be made in the new survey. The Opposition parties led by RJD supported the resolution. It left the BJP MLAs with no option but to endorse it as well. Eventually the resolution was adopted unanimously. Apparently, Tejashwi Yadav, who enjoys the status of the Opposition leader in the Assembly, was worried at the huge response the CPI leader Kanhaiya Kumar was drawing, especially among the minorities, while lashing out at the proposed NPR and NRC. He is said to have persuaded Nitish to pass a unanimous resolution in order to take the sting out of the young Kanhaiya Kumar’s aggressive campaign ahead of the Assembly poll in November. However, Nitish did not take the BJP into confidence before springing the surprise in the Assembly. A bewildered BJP group went along with the senior ally’s move. Given that the BJP had suffered defeat in Jharkhand at the hands of a combined Opposition only a couple of months ago, and it had failed to stop the return of AAP to power in the Delhi Assembly, it was careful not to do anything that would jeopardise the Bihar alliance. Not that Nitish had any option, given the refusal of the RJD to accord him prime leadership position once again after his betrayal two years ago. But the BJP had much bigger stakes in retaining Bihar than even the leader of the JD(U). A new factor that would make the JD(U)-BJP task tough in this election is the solid consolidation of the sizable Muslim vote against the ruling alliance following the whipped-up anti-CAA campaign. As in Delhi, where the turn-out of Muslim voters was well above 90 per cent, resulting in huge winning margins for the Muslim candidates fielded by the Aam Aadmi Party, in Bihar later this year and in West Bengal next year the largest minority community can be expected to vote with a vengeance against the BJP and its allies. On the other hand, despite attempts by the BJP for counter-consolidation of the majority community, these do not yield desired outcomes.
Meanwhile, sticking to the 2010 format for the NPR survey would mean that the Centre would have to drop the addition of a couple of questions pertaining to the birthplace of the respondents’ parents and the production of documentary evidence for the same. Yet, given the vicious rumor-mongering against NPR following the anti-CAA protests, it is doubtful whether the authorities would be able to conduct even an attenuated NPR survey. The entire science of polling opinions and/or of household income surveys for social, economic, educational purposes has been so badly maligned that it would take a long time for surveyors to be treated without suspicion and distrust. Thus far, the Centre has given no inkling about the NPR time-table, but it is committed to go ahead with it. Given that CAA-NPR have become politically divisive, the unanimous resolution adopted by the Bihar Assembly would minimise the scope for mischief and misinformation on this score in the coming State poll.
