Okay, it was a surprise alright, but by no stretch of imagination it was Prime Minister Modi’s Kissinger moment. Back in July 1971, Henry Kissinger, the then Secretary of State to the US President, Richard Nixon, had stunned the world, landing in Beijing for a meeting with President Mao Zedong. Decades of bitter enmity and recriminations at the height of the Cold War seemed to have melted in that historic moment which soon paved the way for close Sino-US ties. Both nations gained immensely. Modi’s stop in Lahore en route from Kabul after inaugurating the India-built Parliament complex there is unlikely to immediately lead to anything big in the tortuous Indo-Pak relationship. Yes, such surprises are good for headline-making, for optics and atmospherics. But the outcomes will depend, as they always do, on painstaking negotiations by tried and tested policy sherpas away from the glare of media cameras. Modi and his Pakistani counterpart Nawaz Sharif hugging each other at the Lahore airport was a good photo opportunity. People in both countries were impressed, more by the unexpected nature of the all-too-brief stopover than anything remotely concrete emerging from the photo-op. Nonetheless such sudden tailored-for-news opportunities, whether or not mediated by private citizens with high connections in the ruling elite in Pakistan, have their own value. Following the Christmas day meeting, it was announced that the foreign secretaries of the two countries would meet in Islamabad mid-January. Clearly, after the public spat and snub over the visiting Pakistani interlocutor meeting the Hurriyat leaders in New Delhi, there were the not-so hush-hush contacts between the two national security advisers in Bangkok and the brief meeting between Modi and Sharif in Paris during the recent climate conference. With this the preliminary process required for the resumption of a comprehensive dialogue had yet again gotten underway. Critics faulting the Government for a lack of seeming rationale and consistency are not entirely wrong. Given that talks alone can grasp the nettle of the Indo-Pak dispute, given that war is ruled out, it is commonsense to keep talking unless the provocation is so strong that a strong tit-for-tat response can pulverize the other party. Admittedly, Pakistan too has been double-faced in dealing with India, hugging Vajpayee at Minar-e-Sharif, Lahore, and soon after launching the war in Kargil. Such perfidious acts harden public opinion against any dialogue with Pakistan. Even Manmohan Singh was let down when the progress made in the extended back-channel talks between the emissaries of the two prime ministers was jeopardized overnight by the Mumbai terror attack. Therefore, care should be taken that the euphoria created by the suddenness of the Modi detour to Lahore last Friday, and the show of bonhomie between the two countries in recent weeks, must not again yield to anger and frustration. For this, the onus is not on Nawaz but on Raheel Sharif who heads the Pakistani Army. General Sharif must be on the same page with his civilian government if the resumed powwow between the South Asian neighbours is not to end in a sullen rupture yet again. There have been so many false starts in the tortured Indo-Pak narrative that all parties must tread gingerly.
Whether Modi with his hard-line image is the right person to achieve the crucial breakthrough with Pakistan might be in doubt but he deserves full marks for trying valiantly, even if it leaves some of his own party men confused and clueless. Modi’s faith in his own diplomatic skills and the ability to strike personal equations with foreign leaders is to be commended, but his biggest challenge lies in ensuring terror-free ties with Pakistan. If he and his Pakistani counterpart can end cross-border attacks by the ISI’s non-State actors, at least during the pendency of the talks between their representatives, something useful might still emerge from the latest resumption of off-now on-now dialogue process. A sliver of hope has presented itself insofar as the Pakistani army is now genuinely engaged in vanquishing domestic terror that increasingly threatens its own citizens. As Modi noted in his address to the newly-built Parliament in Kabul, Pakistan can be the bridge between India and Afghanistan and further afield to West Asia should it give up its anti-India agenda. Peace in South Asia can free both countries to devote their undivided energies to bring prosperity to their peoples and to try and play a useful role in the comity of nations. Surprise visits only signal an opportunity to break the long-standing logjam but by themselves they can achieve precious little unless painstaking steps are taken to grapple with long-pending disputes.
