The poll bugle has sounded in Bihar and the players are getting active. The October Assembly polls will be unique in the sense that it is a fight between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. Normally, Assembly polls are fought on local issues and on the charisma of the local leaders but consciously this time it is a clash of personalities and not on issues. Unlike Delhi, when the BJP was shying away from a fight between Kejriwal versus Modi, there is no such hesitance in Bihar. Both camps are trying to sell the ‘Brand Modi’ versus ‘Brand Nitish.’ Prime Minister will also take on his ally — the RJD chief Lalu Prasad Yadav. All three are great communicators and have a direct approach to the people resulting in the fight being a clash of titans using all the weapons in their armour.
There is no doubt that Bihar is crucial for all players — big and small. For the ruling JD(U) and its combine RJD and the Congress, it is a do-or-die battle for their survival. The Congress is trying to raise its head after its humiliating defeat in the 2014 polls, riding on the back of JD (U) while the ensuing Assembly polls will be Lalu’s last chance to regain lost ground.
Yadavs plus Muslims are credited with creating a social revolution that enabled Lalu to rule the state for 15 years and occupying the main oppositional space over the past decade.
As for the BJP, which had made considerable gains in the Hindi heartland in the 2014 polls, it is crucial to prove that the Modi magic still works and the humiliating Delhi Assembly loss early this year was just an aberration. Secondly, if the BJP loses Bihar, the odds will be against it in the other poll bound states next year such as Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh.
The two sides have chalked out their high profile poll strategy. The central theme is the ‘Good governance’ of Modi and ‘Sushasan of Nitish Kumar’ keeping the development plank above other considerations. Caste is invoked for village chaupal level meetings. At the same time, there is also a micro-level subtle campaign for reverse polarisation, perhaps hoping that if the 1.2 crore Muslims supported the JD(U) combine, the BJP could hope to get the support of the more than five crore Hindus on the other side.
Learning a lesson from Kiran Bedi’s projection as CM candidate in Delhi, the BJP has tactically decided not to project any chief ministerial face. While Sushil Modi is a front- runner, going by the complex alliance of the Dalits, OBCs and upper castes, the BJP leadership has decided that projection of a chief ministerial candidate would disturb the social equation. Above all, there is not a single local BJP leader who could match the stature of Nitish Kumar. Therefore, it has to be a Nitish versus Modi fight.
The chief minister wants to run a campaign based on Bihari pride and his development record. There is no doubt that the campaign is going to be not only negative but also ugly and personal. For instance, Nitish is trying to turn Modi’s assault against him as assault on the Bihari pride. “The Prime Minister said there is a problem in my DNA. I’m a son of Bihar, so it is the same DNA as the people of Bihar… I leave it to the people of Bihar how they judge a person who maligns their DNA”, he tweeted.
The chief minister is busy creating ‘Brand Nitish’ trying to do a Modi on Modi. Ironically, Nitish is riding a high tech poll campaign on social media while calling the Modi government a Twitter government. Coining attractive slogans, the chief minister has launched “Badh Chala Bihar”, “Parcha par Charcha” and “Har Ghar Dastak” campaign seeking “Phir Ek Bar Nitish Kumar”. What is important for Nitish is to have a sincere alliance with the RJD and the Congress and ensure that the votes are intact.
The BJP is banking on four or five factors. The first is to scare the public against Lalu’s jungle raj. The second is to send a message about Nitish Kumar’s opportunistic alliance with the RJD. Third is that while the Yadavs and Muslims, comprising one third of the electorate, might steadfastly remain with the JD(U) combine, dividing the votes of the alliance is imperative. Former Bihar Chief Minister Jitin Ram Manjhi is important for the BJP to wean away the Maha Dalit votes. Fourthly, the BJP is also hoping that the alliance might not work and the infighting, especially at the time of ticket distribution, will help its cause. Above all, Modi has also promised a mega package of more than 50,000 crore rupees for Bihar to lure the voters.
As of now, the arithmetic seems to be in favour of the JD(U) combine as it has 52 per cent votes while the NDA is lagging behind. That is why it is crucial for the BJP to divide the JD(U) votes. The BJP is banking on Modi’s chemistry with the youth.
As of now, as the recent Nelson survey showed, the NDA alliance is 11 per cent behind the JD(U) combine but there are at least two months before the polls and the gap can be bridged. The fight is close and therefore pollsters believe that even a hung Assembly cannot be ruled out. The BJP has a contingency plan even for that. (IPA Service)
