Can Sena overcome its existential crisis?

Can Sena overcome its existential crisis?

At a fundamental level, the current crisis seems to be an outcome of the weakening of the original idea of the Shiv Sena, not so much a result of a compromise on Hindutva as is being said.

A L I ChouguleUpdated: Wednesday, March 08, 2023, 07:55 PM IST
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In a dramatic development last week, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government in Maharashtra was jolted by a sudden revolt of Shiv Sena MLAs, led by urban development minister Eknath Shinde. What initially looked like a mini rebellion against the internal working of the Shiv Sena has become a full-blown political drama, with Shinde defying the party leadership. With a large number of Sena MLAs walking into the rebel camp with each passing day, the stability of the MVA government is under serious threat. But then ever since the MVA government was formed in November 2019 after the coming together of three unlikely parties – the Shiv Sena, the NCP and the Congress – the chances of it completing its full term were always suspect.

If on the one hand it constantly faced the threat of being toppled by the BJP for having been denied the opportunity to form the government by the Sena, on the other hand, the MVA government was also expected to fall under the weight of internal ideological conflicts between the three alliance parties. But a threat coming from a rebellious move by a senior Sena leader was least expected. No matter Shinde’s claim of his unflinching loyalty to the late Bal Thackeray’s Hindutva legacy, his demand that the Sena exit the MVA alliance is an obvious indication that Shinde is probably being guided by the BJP and the script of his rebellion has been co-written by him with someone else.

Although the drama is similar to Jyotiraditya Scindia’s revolt in Madhya Pradesh against the Kamal Nath government and Sachin Pilot’s failed revolt in Rajasthan against the Ashok Gehlot government, the BJP, contrary to reports of its involvement, has claimed that it has had ‘no role’ in Shinde’s revolt. That’s hardly believable, considering that the BJP state governments in Gujarat and Assam have played host to the rebels and provided them with logistical support and police protection. With 38 Sena MLAs with him, as reports suggest, Shinde seems confident of circumventing the provisions of the anti-defection law. But with technical and legal issues having cropped up, it’s difficult to guess how the see-saw battle between the rebels and the Uddhav Thackeray group will end.

The Shinde episode is the biggest crisis the Sena and the Thackerays have ever faced. The Sena may have survived the exits of leaders like Chhagan Bhujbal, Narayan Rane and Raj Thackeray in the past. But those days were different, when the party was helmed by the senior Thackeray. That was a time when unquestioning loyalty to the Sena’s first family was the acknowledged norm in the organisation of street fighters. After the senior Thackeray’s demise, not only has the Sena undergone a sea change, both politically and ideologically, but the emotional bonding with the Thackerays also seems to have weakened.

While its ideology is woven around Hindutva, the Sena at its core is essentially a party that has espoused the cause of ‘sons of the soil’ and stood for the rights of locals, thus symbolising local pride and regional aspirations. But with Hindutva having diluted its core brand character, the party has been reduced to a poor version of its former self. At a fundamental level, the current crisis seems to be an outcome of the weakening of the original idea of the Shiv Sena, not so much a result of a compromise on Hindutva as is being said. If the Sena is an incompatible ally of the Congress and NCP, over the years, the BJP has also emerged as the Sena’s political adversary, considering its diminished stature vis-à-vis the BJP in Maharashtra.

The Sena has not benefited as much as the BJP has since the two came together in 1990 as so-called natural allies. In 1990, when the Sena and BJP struck up a pre-poll alliance for the assembly election, the Sena had won 52 seats with a vote share of nearly 16 per cent, while the BJP won 42 seats with 10.7 per cent vote share. Since then, the BJP has gone from strength to strength, improving its vote share with every assembly election, but the Sena’s vote share has remained stagnant. In the 2019 assembly poll, the BJP won 105 seats with a whopping 25.7 per cent vote share, while the Sena won only 56 seats with 16.4 per cent vote share. Clearly, the Sena’s ideological shift to Hindutva has been no match to BJP’s Hindutva in Maharashtra.

This is why the Sena’s influence has remained stagnant, while the BJP, starting with a negligible presence in Maharashtra, has had a massive growth in 25 years. This is also why the Sena refused to play the second fiddle to BJP and demanded an equal share in power in 2019, including the chief minister’s post. But having emerged much stronger than its alliance partner, both in terms of seats and vote share, the BJP refused to give in to the Sena’s demands. This paved the way for the formation of the MVA government.

Though there was discomfort in a section of the Sena over the party’s alliance with the Congress and NCP, the current crisis developed over a period of time and was waiting to come to the fore. It came into the open with cross-voting in the Rajya Sabha election on June 10 and went out of control hours after the MLC election on June 20. That’s when the BJP sensed an opportunity to bring down the government. It’s one week now since the crisis began and it’s unlikely to be resolved anytime soon.

Most likely the stand-off is headed for a floor test. Several possibilities remain open, including a legal battle. But the key question is of the Shiv Sena: will it survive the crisis and emerge stronger from the rebellion? More important, which ideology will it eventually settle for? Will it go back to hard Hindutva or will the Sena revert to its old ‘sons of the soil’ agenda?

The writer is an independent Mumbai-based senior journalist. He tweets at @ali_chougule

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