Battle lines being drawn in Assam

Battle lines being drawn in Assam

Kamlendra KanwarUpdated: Friday, May 31, 2019, 06:52 PM IST
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As the Congress and the BJP prepare for the next round of State elections in Assam, Kerala, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu the importance of political alliances has come home to both parties in the wake of the results of the Bihar assembly elections. The manner in which the seemingly down and out Congress gained hugely by riding on the shoulders of  Lalu Yadav’s RJD and Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (U) was a signal that the party’s earlier policy of shunning alliances would not work for the beleaguered party in the current state of things.

The BJP, on the other hand, learnt the hard way how lethal it is to go without powerful allies in State elections. In Bihar, it was mauled because it was up against a formidable Grand Alliance.

It is small wonder, therefore, that while in Assam jockeying for alliances is in full flow, in West Bengal the new bedfellows would be the Left parties which accounted for 30 per cent of the total vote share in the last Assembly elections in 2011 and the Congress which garnered 10 per cent. The triumphant Trinamool Congress (TC) had secured 39 per cent of the total vote but was able to sail through because the Left and the Congress were not in alliance.

It does seem inconceivable that TC could be displaced from power at this stage, but the elections in West Bengal would be the acid test. It is doubtful if the Left and the Congress could end up transferring their vote to each other so completely when they are at daggers drawn in Kerala which too is going to the polls. Yet, it is quite on the cards that the two parties would at least form a strong opposition in the Assembly and give TC a rough time.

Assam would indeed be an interesting case study in the upcoming Assembly elections and this article will focus attention on that state.

The Congress has been in power in the state for nearly 15 years but this time around, it faces a major challenge from the BJP which is vying for new political equations.  The Congress, on the other hand, has to beat the anti-incumbency factor and the schism within the State organisation with some of its leaders looking towards the BJP. The impressive performance of the BJP in the last Lok Sabha elections in 2014, winning seven of 14 seats is also a factor that is playing upon the minds of Congress cadres.

Since among the four states that will be going to polls the BJP is strong only in Assam, it is fighting a high-stakes battle there. A disastrous performance there would strengthen the unity of opposition forces nationally and put the BJP under even greater pressure than it is today.

The BJP has already made its initial moves by winning over Congress heavyweight Himanta Biswa Sarma and making Union Minister Sarbananda Sonowal the party chief in Assam.

Sarma was once looked upon as a favourite of Assam chief minister Tarun Gogoi and was seen as astute and street smart. Having known the Congress inside out, he could well be a rare thorn in Gogoi’s flesh now. Sarma fell out with Tarun Gogoi after Gogoi junior started wielding power within Assam Congress, the latter drawing his power from Congress heir-apparent Rahul Gandhi.

While Sarma was in the Congress his name cropped up in three scams that came to the surface — North Cachar Hills, Saradha and Louis Berger — but the wheels of justice roll slowly in our country and therefore there is no judgement passed on him so far.

Ironically, before Sarma joined the BJP the party had come out with a booklet showing him as an accused in the latest Louis Berger scam. But the party has now got court papers from the United States to verify that Sarma’s name was not there.

On the heels of Sarma’s entry, the BJP has managed to rope in the Bodo People’s Front (BPF) wrenching the front away from a long-standing alliance with the Congress. In fact, Prime Minister Narendra Modi began his first visit in the election year to Assam last week with a massive rally in Kokrajhar, where he announced sops for the state’s four Bodoland Territorial Autonomous Districts (BTAD). Significantly, the Prime Minister’s rally was organised not by the BJP state unit but by the BPF.

While the BPF was in alliance with the Congress, it had won 12 assembly seats in the four Bodoland Territorial Autonomous Districts (BTAD) in two successive elections.

While touring the Bodo districts, Modi also announced his government’s decision to grant Scheduled Tribe status to Bodo people residing in the state’s two hill districts, as also to Karbi tribals living in the plains. At the same time, he promised to grant deemed university status to Central Institute of Technology in Kokrajhar and said Rupshi airport would be reopened. The announcement of a package for Bodos was, however, not made, perhaps with an eye on a more opportune time in the future.

While the alliance with the Bodo People’s Front is a shot in the arm for the BJP, talks are believed to be in an advanced stage for a tie-up with the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) with which it had a longstanding alliance before relations between the two parties soured a few years ago.

The Congress too is assiduously wooing the AGP because it realises that it is losing out to the BJP in terms of alliance partners.

The Congress’ trumpcard, however, is that minority Muslims account for a third of Assam’s electorate and to Muslims in general, BJP is anathema. The minority community can turn the tables on the BJP as it has done so often in the past.

Nevertheless, Assam promises a keen battle in the upcoming Assembly elections.

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