The bugle has been sounded. The electoral process is in motion to elect the 17th Parliament of the world’s largest democracy with nearly nine million voters who will cast their ballots in over a million polling booths across the country between April 11 to May 19. The outcome will be known on May 23rd. Simultaneously, the model code was enforced. The spread-out election was defended by the Chief Election Commissioner Sunil Arora at the press conference on Sunday.
Given the huge size of the electorate spread over a continent-sized country with its differences of terrain, climate, communications, etc coupled with the security exigencies, it was no longer advisable to compress polling within a short week or so. The days of one-day, nation-wide polls are long gone.
That was a different India. Complicating further the task of the Election Commission is the Luddite demand for a parallel process to duplicate electronic voting with a paper trail. Nearly eighteen lakh of these will be in use throughout the election process.
However, no trouble, no expense should be grudged if it can guarantee peoples’ faith in the electoral process. Having said this, a seven-phase election, which virtually began on Sunday with the declaration of the poll schedule and extending over two months till the results are declared on May 23 is rather too cumbersome.
It should not have been this long. From one-day poll throughout the country to seven-phase polling in a few States, such as UP, Bihar and West Bengal, is rather too much. Even if the three States are bigger than some of the European countries, modern advances in communications and logistics do make it possible to cut short the exercise of voting in an orderly fashion.
While UP and Bihar have not complained about the seven-phase poll, the ruling party in West Bengal feels irked. But if there was need for holding the poll in small installments in any state it was in West Bengal. Given the rampant malpractices, with ruling party cadres resorting to intimidation and violence to prevent the Opposition voters from voting, seven-phase poll for 42 seats is welcome provided the EC is able to ensure that it is free and fair.
In West Bengal what the Marxists did to abuse the poll process, the ruling Trinamool Congress has taken to further heights of rampant abuse and malpractice. Both Bihar and UP being NDA-ruled, they are in no position to protest. Meanwhile, simultaneous polls are to be held for new Assemblies in Arunachal Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and Sikkim.
Of particular interest will be the poll in Andhra where the outgoing Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu faces a tough challenge from Jaganmohan Reddy’s YSR Congress with the BJP too now arrayed against Naidu who quit the NDA some days ago. Also, J and K is set to remain under central rule for some more time. Given the security concerns, it makes sense to separate the Assembly poll in the troubled state from the national elections.
Although it is too early to speculate the outcome of the general election, it is safe to say that it is going to be a very bitter poll with the Modi and the anti-Modi camps throwing their all into the battle. Some who make the loudest noises may not have much to sell to the voters while Modi will seek re-election on his record in the five years. His slew of welfare schemes can prove to be a game-changer.
The post-Pulwama strikes deep inside Pakistan will prove to be the icing on the cake with national security dominating the campaign. Unless the Opposition is able to shift the focus away from Modi to local issues, it is on a losing wicket. A Modi versus Rahul or even a Modi versus all contest favours none other than Modi himself, such being his grip on the popular pulse.
However, if the focus is on local issues and the non-delivery of promises at the state and constituency levels it could help the poll become more competitive. Despite talking of Mahagathbandhan for months the project is still in its infancy, while the NDA has further roped in more regional allies. Without doubt, the Modi-Shah duo will severely test the combined energies of the Opposition without yielding an inch. As of now, it is advantage Modi.
