Assembly polls: A one-horse race?

Assembly polls: A one-horse race?

EditorialUpdated: Tuesday, October 22, 2019, 10:49 PM IST
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Voters standing in the queue to cast their votes, at a polling booth, during the Assembly Election, at Dr. Babasaheb Ambedkar Commerce and M.V.R. Shinde Arts College on Monday | ANI Photo

The exit polls are more or less unanimous in handing a big win to the BJP in Haryana and, along with its ally, Shiv Sena, in Maharashtra as well. At the end of the mostly incident-free polling on Monday, what held the interest of the voters was the early projections of results by various television channels. Frankly, these ought to have caused no surprise. There may be a question of the actual tally of the BJP in Haryana, but in the case of Maharashtra it seems the Opposition is in for a bigger drubbing. By all accounts, the Congress might fare worse than the NCP. Sharad Pawar led the campaign for the Opposition alliance without getting much help from any notable Congress leader. A remarkable feature of the Congress-NCP campaign was the near-absence of the central Congress leaders. Except a rally or two by Rahul Gandhi, the state unit was left to fend for itself.

Interim Congress Chief Sonia Gandhi opted out of the campaign altogether, not addressing a single rally either in Maharashtra or Haryana. Whether it were the health issues or the fear of a poor crowd response is not clear, though. The Maharashtra Congress is full of big egos minus much drawing power with the voters. But this time around senior leaders felt tied down to his own constituency for fear of a resurgent BJP-Sena combine. A number of Congress leaders had dumped the party to join the BJP on the eve of the poll, further demoralizing the party ranks. This election witnessed the rise of another viable State leader. Outgoing Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis has grown in stature in the last five years, leaving behind a number of ambitious leaders in his own party. Ticket distribution further decimated the old veterans.

Without doubt, Fadnavis through his clever management of the coalition pulls and pressures, with the Sena constantly pinpricking him, also ensured that his ally would remain within the bounds of a modicum of discipline. Now, whether he would yield to the pressure which is bound to be brought to bear on him to appoint Aditya Thackeray deputy chief minister would be watched keenly. Political and pragmatic sense would dictate that he desist from creating a parallel centre of power within the government. Thus far, the Thackerays remote-controlled the government from outside or through nominees in the government. To induct a Thackeray as a deputy chief minister would be potentially risky to the cohesiveness of the government.

As for Haryana, Manohar Lal Khattar, a faceless politician catapulted into the chief ministerial ~gaddi~ five years ago, is now set for another term. He too has grown in stature, thanks to his spotless image in a state where corruption all along had been the byword. He more than makes up for the apparent lack of charisma by being readily accessible, addressing the grievances of people regardless of their caste or creed, and for ensuring a last-mile delivery of various welfare schemes. The Jat reservation agitation which resulted in widespread violence and arson has virtually pitted the community against all other castes in the State. Jats themselves have now splintered into various groups with a sizable chunk voting for the BJP as well. The Devilal clan lies in tatters, Om Prakash Chauthala’s sons floating rival outfits. As for the two-time Congress Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda, he managed to get a free hand in the party on the eve of the poll but his bête noire, Ashok Tanwar, not only quit as the state party chief but dumped the party as well in disgust. The BJP did not have much of a presence in the State till the advent of Modi but now it seems to have struck deep roots, partly because of the new demographics and the rising urbanization and an aspirational class uninfluenced by old caste and community bonds.

The question most critics of the ruling party are unable to come to terms with is as to how despite a slowing economy, an apparent lack of jobs, rural distress, poverty, etc., the voter still continues to repose faith in the BJP. Aside from the obvious lack of a saleable leadership in the opposition ranks, more than economic factors what sways voters is a strong leader. Indira Gandhi’s huge victories were despite rampant poverty and hunger. The percentage of people below the poverty line was much higher then. Or to put it simply, people focus on a leader rather than on issues. Deletion of Article 370 further embellished that strong leader image. What certainly dictated the popular choice without doubt was the continuing popularity of Modi. His role cannot be exaggerated in the ruling party performance both in Maharashtra and Haryana.

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