PRAKASH BAL JOSHI

Urban voters mostly influenced by the recent anti- corruption movement launched by the civil society have given a sort of warning to the Congress and Nationalist Congress during the just held elections for the 10 municipal corporations while rural voters remained loyal to the Congress and its poll ally.

Despite large- scale apathy among voters, the Shiv Sena- BJP alliance has managed to retain its hold over the richest civic body - Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation ( BMC) and the neighbouring Thane Municipal Corporation.

This is a setback to the Congress which is apprehensive about a similar trend continuing in the ongoing elections to the five states in north India including Uttar Pradesh where Congress icon Rahul Gandhi has much at stake.

In Maharashtra, Senas Uddhav Thackeray has heaved a sigh of relief as with the help of senior Thackeray he could win BMC and establish his leadership credentials.

The results are perceived as a threat to the continuation of the Congress- NCP alliance rule in the state. The Congress led alliance has been in power for last decade and a half in the state and would face an uphill task in the coming assembly elections scheduled in 2014. The Congress is more worried about the reduction in the Congress support base as compared to its performance in the last BMC elections. The main concern of the Congress strategist is the fact that Raj Thackeray- led Maharashtra Navnirman Sena ( MNS) has consolidated its base in urban Maharashtra as well as opened its account in ZP elections.

Close scrutiny of the results have convinced the Congress managers that MNS has not merely cut into the Shiv Sena votes in the city but it has actually taken votes away from the Congress, NCP as well as other parties.

As a result, the MNS has taken a first step towards emerging as an alternative to the Congress- NCP as well as SS- BJP though it is too early to say anything definite about MNS'future. One thing is certain: Raj is attracting young voters in large numbers thereby giving jitters to the Sena- BJP combine. In the fiercely contested civic polls, billed as the mini Assembly elections, the Shiv Sena- led saffron alliance has gained its control over urban voters while MNS has consolidated its position as an independent third force in Maharashtra.

This is a time for introspection for the Congress as these results will have a bearing on the elections in 2014. If BMC election is any indication, it is a bad omen for the Congress since it is one of the most urbanized states in the country.

Though, the Congress and the NCP have not done badly in rural areas, the Congress is worried as the NCP has increased its strength by emerging largest party in winning ZP seats. This may spell trouble for the Congress as the aggressive NCP will demand more seats in the coming assembly elections or may decide to venture on its own.

Congress Chief Minister Prithviraj Chavan is facing a lot of flak for lack of coordination during the election campaign.

His detractors are blaming him for his emotional statement that after BMC elections the Sena and its chief will become redundant which fired Sena supporters to come out in large number to save the prestige of their party. Some recall how Vasantdada Patil had opposed the imaginary move to convert Mumbai into a union territory indirectly helping the Sena to gain hold over BMC. Chavans efforts to convert the mini general election in the state into a fight between the UPA and the NDA also failed miserably. He had taken lot of efforts to ensure Congress- NCP alliance for the BMC, but it did not work.

Along with CM, MPCC president Manikrao Thakare and MRCC president Kripashankar Singh are also in the firing line but the party will not benefit of doing some cosmic operations as malice is much deep rooted.

The party will also have to change it strategy if it has to fight the anti- incumbency factor which will haunt it during the coming elections.

The NCP is also in retrospection mood as the party chief held a meeting of senior leaders to take stock of the situation.

The party which wanted to win Pune on its own failed to get required number to control the PMC worth Rs 3000 crore. It also failed to disturb industries minister Narayan Rane and BJP stalwart Gopinath Munde on their home turfs. It will have to do lot of homework if it really wants to go all alone in coming elections and see if it can win more than 100 assembly seats in the house 288- member house.

Raj Thackeray will have tread very carefully as he has to go a long way on his own. He is tempted to join hands with the NCP to seize power in Pune and Nashik but it will burn his support base everywhere as the step may not be liked by anti- Congress factors supporting him. He would not like to be presented as power hungry if he wants to expand his base in the state. He has clearly emerged as a dark horse in Maharashtra politics. He will have to analyze the results at a micro- level so that he takes a right decision. He will also have to make organizational changes based on his experience in the just held elections.

Voters in the state are more mature than the major political parties. They have kept MNS alive and kicking but they did not make Raj the kingmaker in BMC. The Sena- BJP has got the mandate to rule BMC and TMC but they also have MNS presence in these bodies who will keep a close watch on their rule for the next five years. The Congress- NCP alliance has lost heavily in urban Maharashtra but they have retained their hold over rural Maharashtra. They are also wary about growing number of opposition members in ZP setup. Unless they give better governance in remaining two and half years, the tide can turn against them without much warning.

The Sena will pay heavily if it fails to improve the civic administration, infrastructure, and basic facilities in Mumbai and Thane cities. Much will depend on how these parties now behave in post- election period before the voters once again walk to polling booths to elect a new state government for the state. The loyal party workers do not change the picture, it is the floating voters who decide who should rule over them and they go by performance rather than phony election time promises.

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