The fifth phase is crucial for both the ruling BSP and SP, the main contenders for power

OUR BUREAU New Delhi The fifth phase of polling on Thursday in 13 districts to decide the fate of 829 candidates contesting for 49 Assembly seats in Uttar Pradesh is crucial for both the ruling Bahujan Samaj Party ( BSP) and Samajwadi Party ( SP), the main contenders for power.

While seven districts of Bundelkhand have high concentration of over 25 per cent Dalits, the traditional vote bank of Chief Minister Mayawati- led BSP, ex- CM Mulayam Singh Yadav- led SP is counting on the Yadavs dominating in six districts of central UP. Muslims are comparatively low in the two regions and yet they can tilt the balance.

It is also this area that has been nursed by Congress general secretary Rahul Gandhi continuously, with hope to get votes of upper castes and Muslims.

The two regions had sent 28 Samajwadi MLAs out of 49 in 2002, but their tally was reduced to 18 in 2007 when the BSP wrested the major chunk of the rest.

The setback was so severe that Mayawati snatched away all four Assembly segments of Mainpuri, the Lok Sabha constituency represented by Mulayam Singh Yadav.

The reversal of fortunes in 2007 was attributed to flight of Muslim voters from SP to BSP due to Mulayams alignment with former saffron chief minister Kalyan Singh. While Yadavs have an average population of around 15 per cent in the area, Muslim population ranges from 7 to16 per cent in Yadav heartland of central UP and 3 to 10 per cent in Bundelkhand.

The region had a direct contest between SP and Bahujan Samaj Party in 2007 as the Congress was almost non- existent and BJP was reeling under the impact of Kalyan Singh aligning with Mulayam Singh.

This time, contest in the Yadav heartland remains between SP and BSP but in Bundelkhand region, it has become multi- cornered.

The Congress is making concerted efforts to make inroads in the Bundelkhand region, while BJP too has set its eyes on this region with its chief ministerial candidate Uma Bharati contesting from Charkhari seat in Mahoba district.

Entry of a new party, Bundelkhand Congress, floated by actor- turned- politician Raja Bundela, on the plank of a separate Bundelkhand state has added another interesting dimension to the fight as it has fielded candidates in as many as 42 of the 49 seats.

Mulayam Singhs distance from Kalyan Singh has given a boost to his acceptability among Muslim voters but this also brightens chances for BJP as Etah is considered a stronghold of Kalyan Singh due to a large population of Lodh community.

Realising the importance of Yadav heartland that gave shocks in the past, Mulayam has held the maximum number of public meetings in Mainpuri, Etah, Etawah, and Kanpur Dehat as compared to the rest of the districts. His son and SP state president Akhilesh Yadav, projected as the CM, has also concentrated on the region.

With Mulayam seemingly retaining his hold on his core caste base and Muslims returning to its fold, the major worry of the party is the presence of multiple Yadav candidates in the region.

Besides, lessons from Firozabad Lok Sabha byelections are also before the party as it saw Dimple Yadav, Mulayams daughter- inlaw and wife of Akhilesh, suffering defeat. Akhilesh had vacated the seat for her since he was also elected from Kannauj.